Saturday, June 21, 2025
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Saturday, June 21, 2025

Milwaukee Press Club 'Excellence in Wisconsin Journalism' 2020 & 2021 Award Winners

Pollster That Called ’16 Right Sees Closer 2020 Race Than Media Narrative

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The narrative right now is in overdrive: The media and some conservative outlets like Drudge (no fan of Donald Trump) say the president is toast this November. Drudge’s headline blared, “BURNED OUT: THE FALL OF TRUMP? CAMPAIGN BRACING FOR LOSS.” What do Trump vs. Biden 2020 polls show?

The only pollster to call it right in 2016 in key states does show Trump with a pathway to victory, albeit a narrow one.

Wisconsin Right Now decided to look up the recent polling of the Trafalgar Group. That’s a Republican-aligned pollster that has a unique methodology designed to tease out so-called “shy voters” who are unwilling to admit they’re voting for Trump. The methodology also teases out people who don’t normally vote. Not everyone agrees with the shy voter theory, of course, but here’s the thing.

Trafalgar Group is pretty much the ONLY pollster to get it right in 2016; they even called Pennsylvania and Michigan for Trump when everyone else was going the other way that year. They were the outlier that saw the Trump victory when everyone else was sure they would lose. So what does Trafalgar see this time?

They show a MUCH closer race than the narrative would hold right now, although they don’t show a cake walk for Trump by any means. It’s going to be quite a battle.

Trafalgar has Trump up in Florida, Michigan, and Arizona, and behind Joe Biden but closer than other polling in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trafalgar had Trump ahead or tied in North Carolina and Minnesota but hasn’t polled in those states since September and August, respectfully.

Axios reported that Trump’s campaign manager believes Trump can win if he takes Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania or Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Michigan. (That presumes he also wins Ohio, Georgia, Iowa and Maine’s second congressional district.)

According to U.S. News and World Report, Trump can win the election if he wins Pennsylvania but loses Michigan and Wisconsin or if he wins Michigan but loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But that presumes he wins Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. It’s a tough map, but it was in 2016 too.

Here’s what Trafalgar showed in key battleground states on Oct. 16, according to Real Clear Politics:


Florida

Trafalgar: Trump +2
(average of all polls: Biden +1.4)


Michigan

Trafalgar: Trump +1
(average of all polls: Biden +7.2)


Pennsylvania

Trafalgar: Biden +2
(average of all polls: Biden +5.6)


Arizona

Trafalgar: Trump +4
(average of all polls: Biden +4.0)


Wisconsin

Trafalgar: Biden +3
(average of all polls: Biden +6.3%)


Minnesota

No recent Trafalgar polling. They showed the state was a tie the last time they polled the state in August.
(current average of all polls Biden +6/6%)


North Carolina

No recent Trafalgar polling. They had Trump up +2 the last time they polled the state in September.
(current average of all polls Biden +2.7%)

josh schoemann Washington County’s Early Vote

2026 GOP Candidate Josh Schoemann Challenges Evers’ Budget Approach

(The Center Square) – Josh Schoemann, the only Republican currently in the race for governor next year, is criticizing Gov. Tony Evers’ approach to the next state budget by comparing it to his plans in Washington County.

“In Washington County our budget cycle starts right now, and it’s not due until November. We will propose our budget goals to the County Board in the next couple of months. We will share ‘This is what we’re thinking.’ It gives them months of time to think those through, give us feedback, and [have] that kind of dialogue,” Schoemann explained in an interview on News Talk 1130 WISN.

Schoemann said that is far better than the approach Evers is taking again this year.

“That’s not how government is supposed to work,” Schoemann said. “It’s not the vision of the governor. It’s not the vision of any one person.”

Evers and the Republican legislative leaders who will write the budget have been involved in on-again, off-again budget talks this month. On Thursday, the governor’s office said those talks were off once again because of gridlock in the Senate.

“Ultimately, the Senate needs to decide whether they were elected to govern and get things done or not,” Evers spokesperson Britt Cudaback said in a post on X.

Schoemann’s criticism of Evers is nothing new. He has long been a critic of the governor and has turned that criticism up since launching his campaign for governor.

But the recent criticism was also aimed at other Republicans who may jump into the 20206 governor’s race later this year.

“Nobody else in this race on the Republican side, being rumored to this point, has the executive leadership of skills and history to be able to show ‘This is how I’ve done it before, and here’s how we’ll do it Madison,’” Schoemann said. “The results in Washington County speak for themselves.”

Northwoods Congressman Tom Tiffany is also rumored to be looking to get into the Republican race. Before he went to Congress, Tiffany was a Republican lawmaker in Madison.

Businessman and veteran Bill Berrien is also on the short list of likely GOP candidates for 2026.

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Wisconsin Budget Negotiations Reach Impasse Between Evers, Legislature

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin budget negotiations have reached an impasse with both sides pointing fingers at the other in Wednesday afternoon statements.

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said Republican Legislative leaders backed out of negotiations after he agreed to “an income tax cut targeting Wisconsin’s middle-class and working families and eliminating income taxes for certain retirees.” He said Republican leaders would not agree to “meaningful increased investments in child care, K-12 schools, and the University of Wisconsin System.”

Republican Assembly leaders said the two sides were "far apart. Senate leaders say Evers’ desires “extend beyond what taxpayers can afford.”

“The Joint Committee on Finance will continue using our long-established practices of crafting a state budget that contains meaningful tax relief and responsible spending levels with the goal of finishing on time,” said a statement from Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, and Assembly Finance Co-Chairman Mark Born, R-Beaver Dam.

Evers said that there were meetings between the sides every day this week before the impasse.

“I told Republicans I’d support their half of the deal and their top tax priorities – even though they’re very similar to bills I previously vetoed – because I believe that’s how compromise is supposed to work, and I was ready to make that concession in order to get important things done for Wisconsin’s kids,” Evers said.

Senate Republican leadership said that good faith negotiations have occurred since April on a budget compromise.

“Both sides of these negotiations worked to find compromise and do what is best for the state of Wisconsin,” said a statement from Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, R-Oostburg, and Senate Joint Finance Co-Chairman Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green.

In early May, the Joint Committee on Finance took 612 items out of Gov. Tony Evers’ budget proposal, including Medicaid expansion in the state, department creations and tax exemptions.

Born previously estimated that Evers’ budget proposal would lead to $3 billion in tax increases over the two-year span.

Wisconsin Policy Forum estimated that the proposal would spend down more than $4 billion of the state’s expected $4.3 billion surplus if it is enacted.

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The U.S. Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division announced it is investigating California for violating Title IX by allowing males to participate in female student sports.

“Title IX exists to protect women and girls in education,” said Harmeet K. Dhillon, assistant attorney general for Civil Rights. “It is perverse to allow males to compete against girls, invade their private spaces, and take their trophies.”

In February, President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning males from participating in female student sports, and he has threatened to block California's federal funding for continuing to defy his order. With California facing deficits in the tens of billions of dollars each year, it's unclear how the state would offset any losses or pauses in federal funding.

Notably, California Gov. Gavin Newsom hosted conservative pundit Charlie Kirk on his podcast and told Kirk that he thinks it’s “deeply unfair” that boys are participating in girls’ sports.

When asked later at a press conference what this means for state policy, Newsom demurred, painting the matter as a marginal, non-issue not worth his time.

“You're talking about a very small number of people, a very small number of athletes, and my responsibility is to address the pressing issues of our time,” said Newsom.

The California Interscholastic Federation, which governs student sports in California, has since responded to Trump’s threat by announcing a new pilot program to allow girls who otherwise would have qualified for sports finals had the finalist spots in girls’ sports not been taken by transgender-identifying boys to participate in said finals.

Title IX was signed into law by President Richard Nixon in 1972 to ensure that schools could not discriminate against female students. It requires they be provided with equal opportunities to engage in athletics, extracurriculars and education.

DOJ’s letter of interest says it is investigating whether California’s Assembly Bill 1266, which requires transgender-identifying students to be allowed to participate in sports consistent with their gender identities, violates Title IX.

“As a result of CIF’s policy, California’s top-ranked girls’ triple jumper, and second-ranked girls’ long-jumper, is a boy,” wrote the DOJ. “As recently as May 17, this male athlete was allowed to take winning titles that rightfully belong to female athletes in both events.”

“This male athlete will now be allowed to compete against those female athletes again for a state title in long, triple, and high jump,” continued the DOJ. “Other high school female athletes have alleged that they were likewise robbed of podium positions and spots on their teams after they were forced to compete against males.”

Should the DOJ find California is in violation of Title IX, it says it will “take appropriate action to eliminate that discrimination, including seeking injunctive relief.”

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