Democrat Gov. Tony Evers and Republican leaders Robin Vos and Devin LeMahieu released a bipartisan plan over how to use the massive budget surplus. All are retiring. It turns out that lame ducks don’t have as much power as they used to, especially when they work together. A Democrat in the Assembly even showed up in a duck tie. That’s when you knew it was going south.
What would the plan do?
Overtime and tips wouldn’t be taxed anymore; schools would get more money, including for special ed, which they say they badly need; choice and charter schools would also be helped; tech schools couldn’t levy as much in property taxes; and folks would get some of their own property tax money back via $600 and $300 rebate checks (enough to buy airfare to Disney World at least or, in the immortal words of Tom Tiffany, chickenfeed). And Democrats, were they to seize control of literally everything (which might not happen but could), wouldn’t have the $1.8 billion to blow on crazy things.
Truth is lots of conservative voters want strong public schools. Folks in Merton move there for Hartland-Arrowhead’s sports behemoths, and folks in small towns love their schools. They’re often the best employer, the youth center, the social center and more. Republicans have long needed a broader message on education than choice, although that’s important too.
Good so far.
The six Assembly majority makers, Republican state reps in swing districts who could single-handedly prevent Wisconsin from becoming a Tim Walz-style dystopia in a few short months, breathed a sigh of relief because now they can tell angry, restless, struggling voters on the doors (who are really p*ssed right now about Iran and gas), “Hey we’re the guys who allowed you to keep more of your hard-earned money! That overtime you didn’t have to pay taxes on anymore? That was us!”
Which is, of course, the core of Robin Vos’s shrewdest final plan, before he walks off into that good night or more specifically onto the floor of his popcorn company and hopefully some nice beaches with Michelle (who is truly a wonderful human. Enjoy. You earned it, and sorry your own side was so vicious they gave you a heart attack. They will miss you when you’re gone.) Vos thinks he has a fighting chance to keep the Assembly. But it’s hanging by a thread. See the calculus.
Democrats Go Off the Rails
Democrats, who usually blather about wanting more money for schools, promptly went totally off the rails. As in completely.
This included Democrat legislative leader Greta “I called the cops on Sylvia Ortiz-Velez” and various Democrats’ unhinged X accounts.
The exception: Democrat gubernatorial candidate Missy Hughes (who Democrat centrists want but privately admit has no chance) and the aforementioned state Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez (the maverick the Democrats couldn’t take out despite trying)….Hughes and Ortiz-Velez support the plan.
Democrat Governor candidate Kelda Roys, IE Hong without the stocking cap, fresh off her WEAC endorsement hubris and sugar high, vociferously trashed the plan to give public schools more funding, and Evers went after her, pointing out that opposing more special education funding doesn’t seem like a winning position for a Democrat.
Joel “Who?” Brennan (Tom Barrett’s godson) trashed the plan, as well. Well, actually he really tried to thread the needle by trashing Evers for not consulting with Democrats before shouting this plan from the rooftops, and he had a point because that’s kind of weird.
Fran Hong, the Democrat frontrunner who is so out there that she wants to abolish police and prisons completely and calls phone numbers off bathroom walls (for real), ranted that the Evers-GOP plan was a “payday loan.” No, it’s actually folks’ own money. And thereby she officially torpedoed the idea that she is the affordability focused candidate who cares about hard-working restaurant workers because she has been one. In truth, she doesn’t even want them to keep all their own tips. Oops. There goes a narrative.
Evers’ number 2, Sara Rodriguez, took a veiled swipe at him. Wait! Wasn’t she at the table? Oh that’s right. They supposedly hate each other. Or at least there’s no love lost. When will the media write about that?
Democrat Gov. candidates Mandela Barnes and David Crowley released tepid statements so convoluted that it’s not fully clear where they stand. They kind of tried to play it both ways, which might actually end up being smart. No one cares what Brett Hulsey or Kirk Bangstad say.
The Republicans Enter the Room
It appears Evers has no Senate Democrat votes although that could change as he tries to whip them, I suppose. He needs 1 because it appears that, despite the hapless cat herder LeMahieu acting like he has the votes, he doesn’t. It will be a long night for Tony Evers and we suspect he goes to sleep early after eating a bowl of cream of wheat or something, so it will probably be a long night for Maggie Gau. Did you know he doesn’t even really play pickleball much? Oh never mind.
Senate Republicans Steve Nass (also retiring) and Chris Kapenga appear to be hard nos. Kapenga is upset the WHOLE thing isn’t going back to taxpayers directly, although $862M is, or 80%, so he’d rather taxpayers get nothing than $862M apparently and leave the massive pot sit brewing away for Democrats to blow on crazy sh*t if they manage to take everything over. Of course, there is a pathway where Tom Tiffany becomes governor and Republicans control the legislature and can get Kapenga’s wishlist and a better bill through, but it’s shaping up to be a brutal midterm and honest people admit the Senate at least is probably lost because that place is like herding cats without an effective cat herder and Democrats rewrote the maps to almost ensure it.
Kapenga also slammed the notion of taking a one-time surplus for ongoing stuff, like removing taxes on tips and overtime forever. Which I am sure voters prefer. Or until someone repeals it. Nothing is forever in Madison.
That means this storied deal won’t pass after all if Evers can’t whip a measly single Democrat vote in the Senate and right now it appears that he can’t! How embarrassing for him!
Tom Tiffany Goes on the Radio
Tom Tiffany, Republican candidate for governor, went on the radio yesterday and expertly threaded the needle. He didn’t outright oppose the plan, but he indicated he will do more systemic and broader affordability fixes if elected governor, like get rid of the 400-year possible property tax increase veto maneuver. Which Republicans tried to get rid of, but Evers told everyone to “deal with it.” Awesome. AG candidate Eric Toney deftly focused on the systemic fixes as well. Brilliant.
Then it unraveled although not for Toney, who is off prosecuting criminals while Josh Kaul typically says nothing and does nothing, other than letting the crime lab collapse.
The mainstream media pounced on Tiffany, of course, sniping that he wouldn’t comment to THEM as if going on the radio isn’t commenting to the media. People, HE WENT ON THE RADIO. No one cares about your peeves. Some conservative influencers on X then went on tirades opposing the plan for various purist reasons. They don’t want more spending. And other stuff. They have some points, but it’s simply good politics to give people more of their own money back NOW and folks truly need it. Plus, we have divided government and so on.
But then, this morning, for some unclear reason, Tom pivoted on the Ben Yount show, came out hard against the plan, and then released a press release and tweets slamming it to smithereens.
So now Hong and Tiffany were on the same side and that really made my head hurt.
Meanwhile, Assembly Republicans held a press conference touting the fact that taxpayers need relief NOW, and I watched the one with calming influence Mark Born, who pointed out that this is just giving people their own money back and stuff so of course it’s a good idea.
But, of course, almost all of the media questions were about Tom Tiffany. Which was totally predictable.
I’m ’Jazzed as Hell,’ Says Evers
Evers released a weird video with shifty eyes defending his plan. Actually he released that video the day before, declaring himself “jazzed as hell.” But folks on his own side apparently didn’t know it was coming so all of the folksy tropes aren’t working this time. Of course, doing this by video and the day before was smart; it prevents reporters from demanding that he comment about Democrats being ballistic at him.
So now you have Tony Evers looking extremely weak. Never seen his own party turn on him like this!
And Evers vs Senate Democrats and Democrat gubernatorial candidates! What?
And Tom Tiffany positioning against Mark Born and Amanda Nedweski (well kind of. They spoke at the press conference and eloquently touted the plan he’s bashing, so that’s what I mean.) Actually, you now have Tiffany positioned against the entire Republican legislature and Ortiz-Velez, minus Kapenga and Nass, which is just weird.
Don’t these teams talk to each other before sh*t goes public? Can we get a signal chat going?
Tiffany, who was preaching unity on the radio just yesterday, is now against the Republican-minus-Nass-and-Kapenga plan. By the way, Kapenga and Nass seem to vote against lots of stuff. Their entire modus operandi is being the lone wolf no votes. This seems like an unforced error by Tiffany who could have said, “yeah I want taxpayers to get these dollars put back in their pockets AND I want to do more systemic fixes when governor…” but now he’s not saying the first part. It seems like a better primary message than a general election one, but he doesn’t have a primary. Why not let the Democrats be the ones tearing each other apart and blocking tax relief for folks? I don’t get it. Sincerely. Please tell me this wasn’t the result of some 25 year-old comms guy who thinks X criticism reflects the real world.
The Mayflower Was 400 Years Ago
By eve, a smarter comms guy entered the room and Tiffany released a statement pledging to give the ENTIRE surplus back to folks. But of course that requires him to win. And people want it now. But if he wins, which he could, he would certainly do that. And let’s not forget Evers caused a lot of these problems by allowing property tax increases for 400 years. To understand how long that is, 400 years ago, the Mayflower arrived in Plymouth. Now push that forward. We will probably have flying cars and stuff. And our great-great-great-great-great grandkids will still be paying Tony Evers’ property taxes. Unless Tom Tiffany wins. Everything is at stake.
Now no one knows if it will get through the state senate. It probably won’t. No one has a clue what happens after that. But I’m sure Evers (or Gau) will be up all night whipping votes. As a lame duck, he has less to give. But he’s governor. Can he get one? If it fails, Vos and the majority makers still win because they can say, “WE tried!”
Who will break? Will anyone? My, the drama.
Meanwhile voters, if they perceive this is happening at all (ads will eventually make sure they do), and if they aren’t living in a political world bubble, will say, wait, why don’t you want to let me keep all my tips and overtime again? Thanks a lot!
This is CRAZY.
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