A new hotly anticipated Marquette poll came out on July 22, and there were some clear winners and losers as the Democratic and Republican primaries loom on August 11. Here are Wisconsin Right Now’s winners and losers.
The poll was conducted July 8-16, 2026, interviewing 838 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Notably, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley wasn’t counted in the poll because he had already dropped out (he re-entered the race when Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez quit the race amid a campaign finance scandal.)
WINNERS
U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany
Tiffany was a clear winner in the poll. The Wisconsin Republican congressman, who doesn’t have a competitive primary, beats multiple Democratic candidates in different scenarios. He defeats and ties with the Democrat front runner anti-capitalist Fran Hong among registered and likely voters, and that’s before most Wisconsinites learn that she belongs to a group that wants to abolish the presidency and draft a new U.S. Constitution. Her positioning as tops among Democrats is a win for him too because she’s the one he can beat. Tiffany also defeats two other candidates, Joel Brennan and Kelda Roys, in head-to-head match-ups. One of the other candidates who did defeat Tiffany in the poll, former Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, already left the race amid a campaign finance scandal. Furthermore, the issues favor Tiffany. Voters are concerned about inflation and then immigration/border security.
Issues that often favor Democrats in Wisconsin, like healthcare and abortion, fell down the list. Hong “has just 8% of support among those who say they are ‘moderate’ or ‘conservative.'” If she’s the Democratic nominee, Tiffany has a chance to sweep moderates along with conservatives.
Finally, although there is growing angst over President Trump and some of his policies (the Iran war was wildly unpopular in the poll), it doesn’t seem like voters are holding Tiffany responsible for it. Tiffany has a big money edge, and he hasn’t really started defining his opponents yet on the air. It’s early, and he’s starting in a strong position here. Plus, shortly after the poll came out, Democrat establishment horse David Crowley became embroiled in a bizarre scandal over offensive social media posts from the past. Tiffany can win. Plus, the Marquette poll has notoriously undercounted Trump voters in the past, although they’ve tried to change that.
He has some room to grow. A third of Republican primary voters don’t know who he is yet. It’s important that their image of him as an authentic common-sense Wisconsinite sticks before the inevitable Democrat attack ads, likely to come after Labor Day when people start paying more attention. Tiffany and Mandela Barnes have the strongest name ID, with many of the Democrat candidates still largely unknown (even Hong).
Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes
Barnes can’t get any love from the Democratic establishment, but that’s not hurting him. The raucous Democrat base keeps placing him second in polls to Fran Hong, and this poll was no exception. Only Barnes is in striking distance against Hong, among Democrats. He also, as he took pains to point out, was the only person still in the race to defeat Tiffany by both measurements. This might be a function of his lingering name ID from his failed Senate race, and Barnes has a lot of baggage that Tiffany hasn’t begun to remind Wisconsin voters of yet, so this is probably his ceiling.
But it makes it even more baffling why Evers and other power brokers tossed their support behind David Crowley, who was at 3% in the last poll before dropping out. “Hong leads contestants with 26%, Barnes second at 15%; Rodriguez had 11% before she dropped out of the race,” the poll found. When Rodriguez’s second choices are given to other candidates, Barnes grows. “Hong stands at 27%, Barnes at 18%, Brennan at 5%, and Roys at 2%, with 48% undecided,” the poll found. Among Democratic primary voters, moderates preferred Barnes, which was interesting. Barnes’ name ID from his failed Senate race appears to be benefiting him a lot right now.
Anti-capitalist Francesca Hong
Hong led the primary poll for Democrats. That helps Tiffany, though, because she is the candidate he’s most likely to beat (even though she performed more strongly than Brennan and Roys. That’s probably because people don’t know who they are. Wait until they learn what Hong believes in because that’s coming.) Hong’s insurgency continues to be a real threat to social order. Hong supporters are more firm in their support for her. But how kindly will independents take to a socialist invasion of Wisconsin? Her behavior shortly after the poll, inciting a crowd against law enforcement officers after one officer was injured by a knife-wielding man, was despicable.
LOSERS
The Wisconsin Democrat Party
The Party’s front runner, Hong, probably wants to abolish the party. Her allegiance appears to be to DSA, the radical national socialist group she belongs to – and which wants to abolish police, prisons, the Senate, and remove your right to vote for president. If Hong wins, she is going to be a DSA governor not a Democrat governor per se. In addition, the poll shows that the Democrat Party is less popular than the MAGA movement.
Mandela Barnes’ second-place finish in the poll only proves that Wisconsin Democrats yet again backed the wrong horse by not shoring up Barnes as the Hong alternative. Time is running through the hour glass to stop Hong and, if she wins the primary, the Democratic Party is going to be tied to all of her extremist positions. Plus, the party isn’t raising as much money as Republicans. Dismal days for the state Dems.
Joel Brennan and Kelda Roys
They had a single argument left. That they’re the moderates in the race, and that’s their lane. But the poll showed both of them losing to Tiffany (likely a function of them not being defined at all in the public’s minds). And it showed them in the single digits. All they are doing now is dividing the anti-Hong vote, so staying in seems pretty self-serving. However, Crowley’s tweet implosion may stall the inevitable as the establishment casts around yet again for someone new. How bad was it? The poll reported 2% for Joel Brennan and 1% for State Sen. Kelda Roys. Ouch.
David Crowley
The Milwaukee County Executive was having a bad day even before it was revealed he was involved in a weird, offensive old X page in the name of Dirt McGirk. He wasn’t included in the poll because he had dropped out before it was taken, which robbed him of any chance to get momentum. He released his own poll, but it laughably showed him way behind Hong and in third place after Barnes. And that was his own poll! Crowley’s internal poll also showed Hong in an even stronger position than Marquette’s. Oops!
Moderates
Moderates are frustrated, which may be why 45% are still undecided. “Majority of voters say Republican party is too conservative, Democratic party too liberal,” the poll found. They’re marooned without a paddle – or a candidate.
DSA
DSA, the extreme national socialist group that Hong is a member of, is seen very unfavorably by voters, ranging from -18 to -30 unfavorable depending on how the name is presented (it scores best with the word America in the name.) This is driven by dislike among independents and Republicans for socialists.
Josh Kaul
Although the poll only looked at AG favorables and unfavorables, the sitting AG had very weak name ID for an incumbent who has served two term (39 percent.) He faces a strong challenge from Republican DA Eric Toney.
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