Three samplings in battleground North Carolina have been initiated since last week’s presidential debate, and Republican former President Donald Trump has led Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in each.
All, however, remain within the margin of error. And a close finish through 49 more days to Nov. 5 is anticipated by nationwide analysts watching the state.
On the heels of his 1.7% lead from the Quantus Polls and News analysis released Friday, Trump over the weekend picked up a 48.9%-45.9% edge from AmericanGreatness/TIPP Insights and 48.4%-46% from The Trafalgar Group. Sponsors, respectively, were Trending Politics, American Greatness and Trafalgar Group.
RealClear Polling, without the Quantus sampling, has the state remaining statistically even at Trump plus 0.4%. There is no margin of error factored in, though most polls range from nearly 3% to at or just under 4%. This means both candidates are about 3% away from saying he or she leads the state.
Project 538 also computes Trump ahead by 0.4% at 47.5%-47.1%.
North Carolina is among seven states considered pivotal to this election, the group collectively holding 93 electoral college votes. Pennsylvania has 19, North Carolina and Georgia 16 each, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.
To wit on importance, Harris was in the state last Thursday, her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Tuesday, Trump’s running mate U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio comes Wednesday, and Trump is slated for weather-battered Wilmington on Saturday.
Trafalgar Group surveyed 1,094 likely voters on Wednesday and Thursday of last week and had a 2.9% margin of error. American Greatness surveyed 973 likely voters on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and a had a 3.2% margin of error.
Since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, the only Democrats in 14 election cycles since to carry North Carolina were Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008). Neither repeated four years later.
Trump has won the state twice, beating Hillary Clinton in 2016 and the ticket of Joe Biden-Harris in 2020. The differences were narrow, 49.8%-46.2% over Clinton and 49.9%-48.6% over Biden.
American Greatness was created in 2016, billing itself as “the leading voice of the next generation of American Conservatism.” TechnoMetrica conducted the American Greatness/TIPP survey.
Trafalgar polls and surveys originated in 2016. It is based in Atlanta; does release methodology for its polling contrary to published reports; and boasts of an “approach to polling” that “is markedly different from most of the industry.” RealClear Politics named it the best polling firm of the 2016 presidential race in a remarkable rookie of the year accomplishment.
Quantus Polls and News, acquired since the poll came out by Quantus Insights, operates off the emerging substack journalism model. It provides election forecasting, economic and political analysis and commentary.
Alan Wooten
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Reposted with permission
