Wisconsin Governor’s Race Analysis: How the Candidates Stack Up

This is an analysis piece. We’re not going to pick a horse in the Wisconsin governor’s race primaries. However, with the introduction of Congressman Tom Tiffany into the race, there are some clear differences among the three declared Republican candidates, and there’s a battle of “C-list” candidates on the Democratic side.

Here’s how it breaks down.

It’s an open seat, and the Democrats don’t have a top-tier candidate. Assessing their candidates is easy. Let’s start there.

David Crowley

David Crowley is the Milwaukee County Executive who runs big deficits and needed the state to bail him out/allow a sales tax hike as the county was teetering on bankruptcy. What can possibly be the argument for his candidacy? He’s opposed ICE arresting people in the courthouse, bashed the FBI, and is big on DEI and climate change. However, it’s the fiscal stuff that’s going to be the biggest problem for him. According to Urban Milwaukee, “Budget deficits returned sooner than expected. Policymakers had to close a $19 million gap midway through 2024 and a $14 million gap in the 2025 budget.”

Read our previous analysis on Crowley here.

Sara Rodriguez

Sara Rodriguez has no real record of accomplishment as lieutenant governor to speak of, and two short left-wing years in the state Legislature before that. Her bungled campaign launch embarrassingly didn’t get off the ground and pitted her against Tony Evers (announcement timing mess), and no one knows who she is. She’s chosen an extremely divisive and negative approach, calling Trump a “maniac.” This kind of rhetoric feels very pre-Sept. 10. The public is sick of it, we think.

She’s saddled with everything Evers’ administration ever did, and she wanted to eliminate the words mother and father from state law. Yet he hasn’t endorsed his #2! Thus, she will have to own everything controversial he’s done, while not getting full credit for anything the public likes.

Rodriguez wouldn’t even answer whether she agreed with the state budget deal, and Evers said she had nothing to do with it. “If you’re asking yourself, ‘Who the hell is Sara Rodriguez?’ right now, don’t worry. So is Evers,” joked conservative Eric Brooks on X.

Francesca Hong

Francesca Hong is best known for dropping F bombs on X when she’s not joining extremely left-wing legislation. She’s trying to be the Mamdani from the far left who bursts into the public imagination with goofy campaign videos. But Wisconsin isn’t Manhattan, so good luck with that. She is likely to pull the rest of the candidates even farther to the left. So far, her campaign has consisted of running around on camera.

Kelda Roys

Kelda Roys is an extremely left-wing legislator from Madison who has a record of losing. She also has no name ID. She came in 3rd in a Democratic primary for governor in 2018. She lost to Congressman Mark Pocan by FIFTY points. Roys launched her campaign by ranting about “extremists.” She is trying to run against Act 10. She isn’t moderate by any stretch of the imagination, and she has a lengthy legislative record to paw through.

Josh Kaul

Josh Kaul, the state Attorney General, hasn’t announced, isn’t beloved by everyone in his own party as it turns out, and the latest rumors are that he’s thinking twice about running at all. He’s become even more overtly partisan in recent years. Plus, he still hasn’t fixed the crime lab.

In short, the governor’s race is a competition of C and D-list candidates who are likely to pull each other to the far left, which isn’t where Wisconsin is at. This isn’t going to be the state Supreme Court race because it’s not a spring election. Turnout will be different. Plus, Democrats don’t have the power of incumbency anymore.

Declared Republican Candidates

Congressman Tom Tiffany

Pro: Congressman Tiffany, who announced September 23, is a homegrown Wisconsinite. They won’t be able to tag him as a rich guy with a mansion in another state. As a guy from northern Wisconsin, he’s not saddled with Milwaukee problems, and he’s very clear and consistent on where he stands. He has strong name ID in northern Wisconsin. He has a bit of a “boy from Elroy” small-town feel to him (although he’s not as centrist as the other Tommy T was). That plays in Wisconsin. He would look right at home at a dairy breakfast and effectively raises the concerns of rural Wisconsinites (farms, wolves, etc.). He is a fighter who isn’t shy to go after immigration and other hot-button issues that the last GOP gubernatorial nominee, Tim Michels, practically ignored. He’s smart. The last Tommy T, who ran for Wisconsin governor, won. He is already running a very focused campaign on core issues all Wisconsinites care about, like property taxes (Michels also lacked a strong economic message). He’s hard-working.

He knows how to hold a fish.

Con: He’s not regarded as a prolific fundraiser and lacks name ID in Southeastern Wisconsin. Abortion will become an issue due to his hardline position, which he tried to temper on Dan O’Donnell’s show (where he announced) by saying “he would support current state law, which bans most abortions after 20 weeks.” He will need to thread that needle effectively like Ron Johnson did. He has many past votes as a legislator and congressman for opponents to trawl through. Democrats are trying to hit him on healthcare and Medicare already.

Depends: The race will be nationalized. He’s aggressively conservative and will paint a stark contrast with the Democrat who emerges. They’ll tie him to Trump, the election stuff, tariffs, and so forth. Whether that’s a pro or con will depend on the state of the country, Trump, and the economy at the time of the election. America post Sept. 10 is a different world. Some people think he’s a bit boring, but that personality type gets people elected in Wisconsin, where we like our humble, hometown Wisconsin type governors, so it’s probably an asset.

Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann

Pros: He has a great bio (veteran, etc). He’s also a homegrown Wisconsin without a mansion in another state (that playbook is broken on the GOP side). Schoemann, as the Washington County executive, has an impressive fiscal conservative track record that would paint quite a contrast with Crowley if he’s the nominee. The race would be more localized than nationalized, and he has credibility and can bring the focus back to the bread-and-butter issues that voters care about: taxes, housing, and things like that. He has a strong economic message. Those things have crossover appeal. He is very hardworking and entered the race early. There’s less to paw through in his record than Tiffany’s, and that might appeal more to centrists. Although he might appeal more to centrists because of his bread-and-butter issue focus as a county executive, he’s a consistent and strong conservative. He’s trying to strike a positive message on the campaign trail. He has a track record of innovation on election integrity.

Cons: Limited name ID. Untested fundraiser. Some people bring up gravitas and believe he can sound a bit scripted at times. Maybe dress up sometimes.

Depends: Youth. He looks really young. People are sick of geriatric candidates, but the counter to that is the gravitas concerns that some have raised. Honestly, Tom Tiffany looks like his dad.

Bill Berrien

We could stop and end this at the Medium follows. Although the story was broken by the least credible reporter in Wisconsin (Dan Bice, who sometimes is dishonest through omission or word choice in his articles), and even though people follow people they don’t like all the time, Berrien hasn’t come up with a great explanation for following a non-binary porn star. And the headlines are devastating to his campaign.

Pros: Has the most $$. Knows the Winklevoss twins. Former Navy SEAL and businessman.

Cons: Authenticity issues and concerns about politics, even before the porn star-gate (ranked choice voting, Haley, etc.) The rich guy with ties to another state playbook is broken. Plus, he was following a nonbinary porn star. Yeah, there is that.