Why Maria Lazar Lost

Unlike some conservatives, I am not going to trash Maria Lazar while she is down. I think it’s a bad look. Analysis is fine; the personal attacks I’m seeing tonight against her, though, are unnecessary and somewhat cruel. It’s very hard to run a statewide race and lose; show her a little grace. She worked hard. If you haven’t run a statewide race and lost, you don’t know how that feels. Or the damage it can do to a person’s life. She got in the arena. More than you can say for most of us.

The margin, though, was very bad. I mean, 20 points??! I’m not going to sugarcoat things.

This loss was much bigger than Maria and how she framed herself as a candidate. Boiling it down to “let’s trash Maria and say what an awful candidate she was” is a facile analysis.

Did she get everything right in a PR sense? No, but her decisions on the PR front were arguable. That’s not why she lost. She didn’t lose because she said she was an independent in a debate almost no one watched, although I will agree that she lost, in part, because she didn’t ignite any core constituency group (and moderating on abortion probably turned off some pro-lifers.) Think of Justice Brian Hagedorn igniting evangelicals back in the day. She didn’t ignite a motivated group like that. She didn’t tap into a power source like that.

I’m not sure any conservative could have won this race, frankly.

Taylor’s power source was the burning bonfire of Trump hate.

On paper, Lazar was a good enough candidate to win. But so was Brad Schimel. She is an appellate judge, a former circuit judge, likable, a woman in a state that elects them to the court, and a former prosecutor. Feisty. From a populous county. She worked hard.

Lazar lost because she was wildly outspent. You can’t get outspent 10 to 1 or whatever and expect to win. Turnout and financing were the core reasons she lost. Democrats have been turning out at presidential levels for April races since Trump surprised them with a 2016 victory; they feel they are the “resistance” and consider spring elections their expression of it. Conservatives are turning out at normal April levels or slightly under that. November races are different because everyone turns out for those (at least for president. Less so for midterms.)

However, there’s an old business adage that says that, to get at the root of a problem, you should ask “why” five times. So we can say that Lazar lost because of turnout and financing, and those were down… but why were they down? And so on. And that leads us to Donald Trump.

We can debate why she was wildly outspent and should. She has to own some of that as the candidate; the party must as well. Brian Schimming will have renewed scrutiny and should. What the state party is doing is not working (although it worked in November 2024). But it’s not only the state party that should be scrutinized. The county parties, Turning Point, everyone plays a role. Everything needs to be revisited and on the table. The brightest minds that conservatives have should get together in a room and figure out new strategies. And I do mean together, as in get along. Heck, rent the Kalahari like DPI (just don’t stick taxpayers with the bill.) Scott Walker should get off X and help with that. Tommy Thompson should stop flirting with running himself and help with that. Brett Galaszewski (Turning Point) should bring the youth, although New Hampshire seems to be their focus more now. Everyone should help.

The donors didn’t engage. Why? Well, it wasn’t for control of the court this time, and they poured streams of money into the last court race and got no return on that investment. They’re sick of throwing their money into the wind for no ROI, I’d guess, and are focusing it on races they think they can win, like governor, AG, and state Assembly races. They don’t seem very engaged in the state Senate, either.

Lazar lost primarily because Democrats, especially those frothing-at-the-mouth liberal women, turned out in droves because they’re insanely and irrationally enraged at Trump. Rage is a powerful motivator to turn out. And Republicans didn’t turn out (or donate) because they’re demoralized and wrote off this race as unwinnable from the start because of the massive Susan Crawford margin last time, which occurred for the same reason. Trump’s victory is, paradoxically, causing conservatives to also lose a lot. Trump (and ICE) give Democrats a foil, a rallying point (however misleading of one), and a unifying point (like Roe v. Wade did before), and the protest movements fuel their turnout.

It’s important to remember, though, how quickly the pendulum can swing back. After all, this was how conservatives felt in 2024, not that long ago:

Hatred drives people to the polls, and I am shocked by the level of hatred emanating from the left right now. They HATE their opponents. Irrationally. They’ve decided that all garden-variety Republicans are evil (except Steve Ponto and Matt Rosek, apparently). I’ve never seen anything like it before, and I find it frightening on some level. I’ve lost count of how many literal death threats I’ve gotten. I get called the C word on a regular basis now. I have to ask enraged, misogynistic liberal men to stop sending me harassing, vile hate messages (seven times…) People look up my colleagues’ emails at work to troll them about me. It’s off the charts.

This is a revenge purge. This was their chance to exercise it. God help us all if enraged liberal women get all of the reins of power. Some of them want us dead. I legitimately believe that. Just look at Charlie Kirk or their wild-eyed TikTok videos. Conservatives aren’t really enraged right now. Their guy is in power. They’re frustrated, I think, in some ways. But not enraged. They sat at home.

I lost count of how many people said “she has no chance” behind the scenes from the start. That doesn’t bode well for turnout. Depressed people don’t vote.

Conservatives poured everything they had into the Brad Schimel race. He wasn’t outspent. The money rained in. People volunteered, knocked on doors, and put their hearts and souls into that race. They really tried to win it. They went to the mat on it. Even Musk flew in! And then Schimel lost by SO much. It was massively demoralizing. Not just the loss – the margin. And so people sat at home this time. They felt it was hopeless. That doesn’t mean they think the governor’s or attorney general’s races or local races are hopeless, though (in fact, some of the local races on Tuesday proved that). It means that conservatives no longer believe conservatives can win court races in Wisconsin spring elections. That’s a huge problem.

It’s amazing how the storied Walker machine has disintegrated in a few short years. I will say kudos to the local conservative candidates like Ponto in Brookfield and Rosek in Oconomowoc, who beat back attacks from the left to win key mayors’ races against this turnout headwind. The left painted the Ponto race in particular as a canary in the mine, but, although they got their beachhead in Waukesha (electing a left-wing nut over a Republican state rep by a close margin), they failed to get one in Brookfield (or a massive school referendum in Whitefish Bay.) Moms for Liberty filled its X page with declarations of victory for its endorsed school board candidates all over the state, and Grant Scaife, a prosecutor, defeated an Evers’ appointee in Washington County, which continues to generate impressive turnout (and should be a turnout model that conservatives study and try to replicate. Thank you Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and County Clerk Ashley Reichert for that.)

Looking Toward November

It’s very important for the statewide GOP candidates to explain to people why this race isn’t a harbinger for the fall and to untether themselves from Trump (have their own, distinct political identities) – in fact, fall elections are a different turnout game than spring ones.

The fact that this margin was so large is a problem for Tom Tiffany, though, because of the demoralization factor. He should explain to people and convince them that fall races are different (because they are). I was hoping the margin would at least be closer because of this demoralization factor (often referred to as the “enthusiasm gap.”) This is important. Tiffany had some real momentum going into tonight. Democrats are not unified in that race; there is no incumbent; their candidates are (unlike a judge race) letting their radical views all hang out (they all oppose ICE detaining all illegal immigrant criminals in jails); and they’re uniquely weak candidates (Francesca Hong, hello??). The November races are different in many ways. You can’t convince me that most Wisconsinites want illegal immigrant felons to stay in this state, or taxes higher, or school choice eliminated, or Act 10 eliminated, or the ability to raise property taxes for 400 years, or boys in girls’ sports and locker rooms. I don’t believe that. The issues are on Tiffany’s side, and a month is a lifetime in politics. Chris Taylor didn’t win because Wisconsites prefer her stances on the issues, in most cases. She won because she hid them. However, Republicans need a stronger message on public education that isn’t only focused on school choice.

Iran and the economy aren’t helping morale, however. That’s just a fact. A growing number of conservatives (and independents for sure) aren’t happy about Iran, either (and the Minnesota ICE stuff was a PR debacle, albeit a provoked one). People get the necessity of the mission; no one thinks Iran is a country led by good guys (and few Wisconsinites want illegal immigrant criminals to stay here, but this is a propaganda war, and right now, Trump isn’t winning it. The personal divisions among the national (paid?) influencer class on the right have contributed to his inability to generate a clean counter-narrative on some of this stuff.

On Iran’s leaders: We all get that they are a menace. But people are extremely wary about returning to a neocon mindset. We remember what happened in Iraq. The shock and awe was the easy part. It’s what came after that that was hard, and it’s not something that those who lived through it want to revisit. Regime change is hard, ugly, painful, and fraught with peril. We are already seeing this in Iran. The mission is already getting muddled. I thought we were going for regime change? Now we’re negotiating with a terrorist regime that is slaughtering protesters? I don’t think people thought they were voting for taking out foreign leaders. They thought they were voting for a guy who was against going into Iraq when everyone else (including Hillary) was for it. They just wanted the price of eggs to go down and the border secured.

The public has very limited patience for this Iran war, especially but not only independents; it had better end fast and decisively, or Iran will just be a snake that grows new skin, and it’s going to cost Republicans more votes at the ballot box. Don’t underestimate the growing public uneasiness over Iran. I can feel it. I share it. I understand the mission on the front end, and I don’t want a nuclear Iran, but I don’t have the appetite for a protracted fight. I worry that we can’t truly win this fight without ground troops to take the cities, and NO ONE, including me, wants that. Tariffs and the economy are problematic. People don’t feel they’re better off even though it’s Democrats who want to jack up their property taxes (and Gov. Evers arrogantly and callously said taxpayers should just “deal with it” for 400 years); but it’s adding up. This can all shift on a dime, and a month is a lifetime in politics. But all of this contributes to conservative morale, or malaise really, and people with low morale sit at home.

Lazar lost because Republicans don’t have a Reid Hoffman-style donor (that’s not anything to be proud of, though, Dems. He’s an Epstein island visitor). They can’t rely on only Dick Uihlein and Diane Hendricks for everything, at some point (and those two rarely agree on candidates anyway.) Democrats have figured out the fundraising and turnout game (but not enough to not lose to Trump and Ron Johnson, but neither of them was wildly outspent, and both are larger-than-life, well-known figures who were running against historically awful opponents. And Ron was an incumbent. Remember Republican John Leiber won the state treasurer’s race just a couple years ago too. There is a formula. But that is feeling very “2022” right now.) With Lazar, the rural voters checked out, or maybe she didn’t properly work them.

A northern Wisconsin reader told me that she didn’t even know who Chris Taylor was running against until she found my Facebook wall. Let that sink in. There were no commercials, yard signs, or direct mail pieces up north for Maria Lazar where this reader lives. Lazar didn’t have the money to buy them. A horrified conservative from northern Wisconsin told me last night that Marathon County hasn’t picked a Democrat since “Dave Obey in 2008.” Yes, it was that bad. Tom Tiffany won’t have the northern Wisconsin problem. He has a chance to build a Trump-like coalition through the forests and dairy farms Up North that can offset the WOW county erosion. But the WOW county erosion is a big problem. And, as noted, he needs to have a political identity that is entirely separate from Trump (as an authentic Wisconsin guy who once ran a campground and small boat company, he has a chance to do that.)

In retrospect, that Walker-era deal allowing parties to funnel unlimited cash to candidates was an absolute disaster. It all traces back to that, arguably.

All of it, arguably.

Lazar lost because Trump voters only come out for Trump. This is a dilemma that Republicans have not solved. I think about a Crawford County logger whom I interviewed after Walker lost. He told me that he had only voted for two people in his life. Trump and the sheriff, who was his neighbor. He didn’t vote for Walker because he “didn’t have time.” I don’t have to ask whether he took the time to vote for Maria Lazar. She didn’t have rural appeal, name ID, or a big enough persona/personality to catch fire.

Conservatives lost the race because the incumbent, Rebecca Bradley, who had name ID and who could have generated national fundraising dollars, decided to quit. She pulled the incumbent card off the table. Incumbency matters a lot in this state. Unfortunately, this is happening in some legislative races, too, and some of the legislators have good reasons for leaving. But losing the power of incumbency hurts.

The November governor’s election will be an open seat. That helps. I get that this court seat was also, though.

Lazar lost because Taylor used all of that money to trick voters into believing she is something that she is not – fair, independent, etc. Liberals crowed on my wall that Taylor won because she stands for democracy and “protecting your rights” and “fair maps.” That’s interesting because people can still get abortions in Wisconsin if they care so much about doing that (but Democrats have truly convinced young female voters their “rights” are on the line); Evers’ own maps are in place; and the Republican Assembly leader refused to decertify the election (for her part, Lazar declared “Biden won” on TV.) So spare me. But it’s an effectively deceptive narrative.

Heck, Taylor even ridiculously claimed that she’s not a Democrat during the final debate. Yeah, right. I don’t believe that what she actually stands for is embraced by most Wisconsinites (boys in girls’ sports, hello?!), but voters didn’t find those things out.

Partly that’s because it’s a judicial race, which gives candidates a ready-made excuse to hide their views, in contrast to a governor’s race, where those views are front and center. There are some conservatives who believe conservative judicial candidates should stop running as lofty, holier-than-thou judges and start running as overt partisans (liberals are). But if Lazar had done so, she still didn’t have the money to tell voters about it.

I remember the heyday of Charlie Sykes and Mark Belling, working in tandem to drive voters out. The loss of WTMJ to the conservative cause was a big one. Belling being off the air is also a huge loss.

In short, there are many reasons Lazar lost. It’s not all because of Lazar. It’s as much about Trump as it is Lazar, frankly, probably more.