If you watched the only televised Republican debate in the 7th congressional district tonight, you probably get why I’ve been saying for weeks that I’d be okay with Marine veteran/businessman Kevin Hermening or Ashley Furniture official Jessi Ebben winning; why I just don’t think Sean Duffy’s 26-year-old son-in-law Michael Alfonso is ready (but he’s earnest, has promise, and is generally right on the issues); and why I’ve explained that dog sledder and digital media company founder Niina Baum is an impressive young person who is simply too liberal for this +27 R district. Impressive with a hedge – she had a dishonest moment.
That’s pretty much how it went.
Who Won?
The WJFW-TV moderator, Dan Hagen, was a winner. Kudos! I thought the questions were solid. They were a good mix of policy (wolves, data centers, social security) with interesting questions that dug into values and some zingers in between.
PLUS HE WENT THERE.
The moderator asked Alfonso whether he has a job (he does) and why he doesn’t appear in the state accountant database (!), Ebben why she signed the Walker recall petition (she did, in college, and she’s 36); Hermening whether he took “millions” for being an Iran hostage (he didn’t), and Baum whether she last voted for Trump in 2016 (she did, which means she didn’t vote for Trump in 2020 or 2024. Yikes.) That segment was hilarious.
Most Dishonest Comment of the Night
“I did not make a post in support of an ICE Out protest,” Baum said.
Careful semantics but not really honest.
I previously interviewed Baum on the phone. She told me that she shared the anti-ICE protest post to her social media story. She said it vanished because it was a story (that’s what happens with stories), not because she deleted it. She also said that she shared it because she “had an emotional response to Alex Pretti getting shot. It broke my heart inside seeing an American citizen being shot. I’m not saying whose fault it was, but I was saddened by it. And I shared that as an emotional response.” She said a group she is a brand ambassador for shared it first, and she claimed that she is “not anti-ICE. I was emotionally frustrated in that moment.”
But that’s not what she said at the debate.
I supposed we could debate whether her comment at the debate was a lie because she shared but didn’t make it. But c’mon. The response was minimally misleading and at most dishonest. I’m not going to debate the meaning of the word “made.”
Best Lines of the Night
Hermening’s best line was when he said that he doesn’t want a title. He wants to serve. And when he spoke about his appreciation for freedom after being held captive in Iran.
Alfonso’s best line came when he said he would have the energy of a young man but the values of the 7th.
One line that flopped. Ebben said she is the only candidate with energy and experience. But Hermening seemed strong and energetic. And Baum also has impressive experience (local boards, being a dog sledder, starting a non-profit and digital media company.)
Quotes of the Night
“Yes, I still have a job. No. I am not unemployed,” said Alfonso. “Did Nick Shirley have experience?” He added.
A 60ish voter texted me after the debate and said, “I’m embarrassed to admit, who the hell is Nick Shirley?” Remember the average age of GOP primary voters in this district is over 60. They’re not really up on YouTubers, even the guy who unraveled Somali daycare fraud.
Alfonso admitted that he made a “simple slip of saying I used to be an accountant” at a June 22 forum. He said he still works for his local church as one (part-time, they say.)
Good to know. Although it’s strange that we’re at the point where a congressional candidate’s job became an open question. And I am not sure being a part-time accountant for a local parish, a job he never mentioned until whether he had a job became an issue, really prepares one for Congress.
Weirdly, the church wouldn’t comment when asked whether he worked there after that slip. He also revealed during the debate for the first time that he worked as an accountant at an aviation company as a college senior (I thought he worked seven years in construction?) Construction barely got mentioned. I need a flow chart to keep track of all this.
And then there’s Baum, who revealed, “2016 was the last time I voted for Trump for president. I didn’t vote for him this last time.”
Yikes.
Mentioned the Most
Trump. Alfonso mentioned Trump so many times that it became a bit robotic. He even revealed he had an “interview” with Trump in the Oval Office. C’mon. The Leader of the Free World wasn’t going to endorse a part-time parish accountant who isn’t the son-in-law of his cabinet secretary.
I am not sure voters want someone who will be a 100% Trump sycophant? I am also sure voters in this district don’t want a Biden or Kamala voter. That brings me to Hermening, who managed to come across as BOTH pro Trump but also his own man.
Hermening did a great job, though, of not conceding Trump turf. He said he was a Trump elector, wants to get Trump’s agenda through Congress, and is America First. He also praised Sean Duffy more than Alfonso did. This is smart. He’s not oppositional to either. But he also mentioned Reagan.
Come to think of it, Ebben didn’t mention Trump much at all. Or maybe the other two brought him up so much it was overshadowed.
Which candidate won the debate?
Kevin Hermening or Jessi Ebben.
But that probably makes Hermening the winner because Trump-endorsed Alfonso wasn’t, and they’re the top two. And if you don’t believe me, go watch it, and unless you’re Mike’s mom or Sean Duffy, I am sure you will agree. I will say though that, if Ebben gains support, I’m not sure if she draws from Mike or Kevin.
I asked a Republican male legislator who watched the debate, and who hasn’t endorsed anyone, who won it, and he said, “Hermening and Ebben both did well. Hermening won, slightly. But I’d be fine with Ebben. I liked her a lot too.” He said Baum was “awful” and Alfonso was too “canned.” He thought the Shirley comments were “weird.”
On my wall, other viewers were mixed, but most agreed that Hermening and Ebben did well, although one felt Ebben wasn’t “dazzling” enough and didn’t stand out and another guy felt Hermening seemed a little too establishment (despite his repeated praise of Trump.) It was probably the gray hair, glasses and suit.
But the general consensus was that those two did very well. I agree. Their answers were the most specific, they spoke with the most authority and knowledge, and they gave solid conservative answers. They didn’t make any mistakes.
Hermening gave the best answer to the gotcha (but fair) questions, evoking his captivity in Iran by anchoring it to the future, telling the very moving story of a fellow captive who was a father figure and who told him, “When we get out of here – not if, but when – make something of yourself. Get an education, raise a family, live a life of relevancy.” Which he has done, serving 16 years on a school board, as Marathon County GOP chairman, raising kids, and as a financial advisor. This story has extra poignancy when he then revealed that the man lost 200 pounds in captivity and died two years later, to explain why he supported a sanctions fund for the hostages. Hermening gave his money to charity. But others needed it.
I don’t think you can credibly argue that Alfonso or Baum won. The only question is whether they lost. Alfonso was not terrible, however. He’s right on the issues.
I do think Hermening came across like the dominant presence in the room. So I agree with the legislator. He won, but Ebben did well. He focused more on economic and fiscal sanity. She made a clear appeal for the pro-life vote (they’re both pro-life, though.)
The physicality winner
Let’s be honest. Debates aren’t just about answers. They’re also about physicality and body language. And it can be tough for men to debate women. Trump hovering behind Hillary, Rick Lazio moving into her space in a New York Senate race… there are traps when men debate women. Neither Hermening nor Alfonso fell into them, so kudos to them on that.
They were all gracious and respectful to each other. There was no rudeness or lack of decorum. Really all of the candidates comported themselves with a lot of class.
But debates are also about how people look. Think Al Gore looking orange and beta, or Kennedy appearing more vigorous and handsome than Nixon. The simple truth is that Michael Alfonso, 26, is a handsome young man, but he looks REALLY young and slight standing next to the much bigger and taller Kevin Hermening, 66. He’s so smooth-faced that you wonder if he can shave and the manicured eyebrows are frankly just odd, the bouffant hair too blow-dried for a rural district such as this. One reader on my wall has dubbed him “Alfonzie.”
And Hermening isn’t 80, so he doesn’t look frail or ancient. Hermening is over 6-2, and he’s a big man. And he hovered over the other candidates. Two were women so that’s not unexpected, but he looked like Alfonso’s dad standing next to him.
Hermening has the gravitas, and it made me wonder anew, why am I supposed to think that Alfonso is a better choice than a 40-year financial planner who fought against masks and boys in girls sports on the school board and who helped many conservatives get elected as Marathon County GOP chair and who started a financial advising company?
Alfonso is a promising young man. I love his focus on family and values. I just think he should start with assembly or school board first. Or go into the military. If they had done this right, he would be a star.
The most absent
George Washington wasn’t mentioned. Some consultant clearly told Alfonso to switch to Shirley to make his point that some people are very successful very young. The Washington comparison, which Alfonso made to the AP, is insane because Washington commanded the Continental Army and dodged bullets in the French and Indian War before he became a politician. Alfonso is a former podcast producer with a math degree from Madison. I mean, c’mon.
Federal transportation lobbyists didn’t get mentioned once, although Hermening did pledge to drain the swamp and Ebben made a reference to a silver spoon and red carpet.
The least nervous awards
Gotta give it to the women. Neither Ebben or Baum ever sounded nervous. Hermening and Alfonso sounded nervous at first but both became far more confident as it went on. But I tried to find a frame of the fairly intense Ebben cracking a smile, and it wasn’t easy. Baum was very conversational.
Who lost the debate?
Baum.
Or maybe Alfonso because he didn’t win – he didn’t put it away and show the critics up. He had the most to lose as the putative front runner. That can be debated after this.
Some viewers on my wall liked Baum’s fresh-faced approach and her clear outside status. She’s young and she’s not taking PAC money in a district where people hate elites and politicians as usual.
I hope she stays in the political process. She has an interesting life story, watching family farms disappear in her community and losing her elementary and middle schools to consolidation. She’s done a lot at a young age.
I just don’t think she’s really a Republican. I think she’s a true independent and, sadly, there isn’t much space for someone like that in politics these days and not as a Republican nominee. There should be. But Baum’s political views don’t really fit this district, which is very Republican and pro-Trump.
Readers who weighed in on my wall generally said they liked her, but they’re not quite comfortable with where she falls on a lot the issues. A lot of young people evolve to be more conservative with time. She’s only 31. I think Republicans need to embrace the independents, especially the young ones. Give them space and respect in the hope they move toward that side. So I’m not going to bash Niina. She’s an impressive young entrepreneur and a champion dog sledder, her ICE comment aside. But that comment was bad. And not voting for Trump in the 7th? Good luck with that.
Weird Moments
There were a few weird moments.
Alfonso talked about transgender goats in Afghanistan and said some people want to put data centers in space. His point with the goats was that the federal government funded a lot of crazy things.
Transgender goats?
Disingenuous Answer
Ebben was asked why she moved from the 3rd CD to the 7th. She said she lives where her family has lived for nearly 100 years. That’s her husband’s family, actually, and they live down the road. The fact is that she’s a recent transplant to the district who moved there some time after losing to Republican Derrick Van Orden in a 3rd CD primary. She was raised in Westfield and lived in Minnesota.
A Couple Errors
Hermening and Ebben didn’t make any mistakes.
Alfonso made a couple.
“Every single one of our problems is actually caused by the federal government,” Alfonso said when asked whether he wants to delist the gray wolf, a hot issue in the Northwoods because they eat people’s dogs and cows.
“Bureaucrats in Washington DC have no idea what rural America is,” he said.
First of all, this is an odd statement from someone who is endorsed by almost all of Wisconsin’s congressional delegation, is endorsed by the top federal official (the president) and who is only a credible candidate because his father-in-law is a federal bureaucrat: the US Secretary of Transportation, who previously was in Congress.
“The federal government should not be regulating the gray wolf,” Alfonso added.
This comment kind of threw Rep. Tom Tiffany under the bus, as he has taken the lead in Congress to delist the gray wolf. Tiffany introduced the Pet and Livestock Protection Act. It removes federal protections and also returns the management of wolves to locals and states. Alfonso got the last part right, but he could have given Tiffany credit for his efforts rather than painting federal officials as the problem.
This was a continued theme of his – bashing the federal government and federal officials, when he’s been touting their endorsements for months and has. also pledged repeatedly to align with President Trump on literally everything (Iran, tariffs.)
Hermening did a good job rattling off a list of LOCAL officials who have endorsed him, like Pat Snyder, Romaine Quinn, and Mary Felzkowski.
The gray wolf comments caused Hermening and Ebben to point out that the gray wolf IS being dealt with at the federal level (they want it delisted). Hermening praised “the former congressman” and Ebben praised Tom Tiffany.
And let’s talk about tariffs. This might have been the biggest mistake of the night. Alfonso was asked which issue was important but not discussed in the debate, and he brought up tariffs and said he stands with Trump on them. He claimed that “DC swamp people” claim tariffs are causing inflation and negatively affecting “our people.” He said that they are actually fair trade and added, “I will stand strong with President Trump’s tariff agenda.”
I’ll just say that tariffs are controversial, including with farmers and ginseng growers so we will see how that plays out. Minimally, I am surprised that he decided to inject that live wire topic into the debate when he wasn’t even asked about.
The 7th is up in the North Woods, stretching from Hayward to Hudson and Ladysmith to Wausau. It’s Tom Tiffany’s old seat. It’s a very Trumpy district. So, even though there are some Democrats also running (they debate next week), the winner of the Republican primary on August 11 will probably be the area’s next congressman.
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