We all know the top line results: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated socialist Francesca Hong to win the Democratic primary for governor, in an upset, and he will face Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany in the general election. There were a lot of other interesting races on the ballot too on Aug. 11.
Who lost/who is a loser:
#DSA: Republican Tom Tiffany (and Dana Perino and conservatives) drove a stake through socialism’s heart in the American Heartland; they just it did it two weeks too early. Another DSA candidate also lost a #Madison Democrat primary. We’re not Manhattan.
Fran Hong: She is no Mamdani. Lacking a force of personality, she made a mess of the past two weeks, grabbing a megaphone to trash a cop, blathering word salads on network TV, cozying up to radicals, walking back everything she ever stood for, and generally misreading the Democratic Party’s primary electorate. All she had to do was be the normal one for two weeks, but nope.
Mark Pocan: The creepy Democratic congressman from Madison who pandered to Fran Hong is the biggest loser because she lost. She’s probably going to run against him next – and win. She won’t be the next Tony Evers, but she might be the next Ilhan Omar. After all, it’s a Madison district.
Pollsters: The Marquette and Up North News polls were so off it’s laughable. Marquette had Democratic primary victor David Crowley down by 31 points, which started the feeding frenzy on Francesca Hong as if she was already the nominee.
When are we going to have the conversation about the ethics of bad polls influencing elections? Charles Franklin, what gives? Then again maybe the polls weren’t that wrong. The answer was hidden in the undecided column. Hong had a ceiling. My guess is that the polls ended up measuring enthusiasm but not actual turnout, and undecideds clearly broke for Crowley. But it looks bad.
Megaphones: Francesa Hong lost the Chardonnay liberals by screaming through that megaphone after the police shooting, and BLM sealed the deal by screaming in their faces during their wine dinner at the Capitol. Turns out that affluent white liberals just wanted to put coexist bumper stickers on their cars and pretend they’re the good people, not have it ruin their concert.
Chris Lawrence: Scummy behavior in the Waukesha sheriff race hurt his candidate, John Gscheidmeier, and he helped Moms for Liberty activist Sandy Wiedmeyer lose down in Kenosha/Racine. He was also involved in Tim Michels’ loss. The scummy behavior backfired. Campaign 101: Weaponizing a hate page with about 500 followers against a person with millions of views and a Republican state representative (who was trying to stay neutral then) isn’t a great strategy. Honorable mention to stupid AI deep fakes.
Mandela Barnes: Never forget that the Democratic establishment had to destroy him to get this victory – and they did it by trawling through the s*x life of a black man (which is a racial trope).
Sylvia Ortiz-Velez: Never forget the lengths that the Democratic establishment went to destroy Ortiz-Velez because she was a free-thinking Latina woman who occasionally voted with Republicans when it helped her district. Repugnant misleading direct mail; getting her charged with a ridiculous “crime” for saying she would tell the news media about their own alleged misconduct…it’s all just bad and, unfortunately, it worked.
Minority Democrats who split with the Democratic establishment: Democratic powerbrokers took out Hong, Barnes and Ortiz-Velez.
Republican establishment types like Brian Fraley and Gov. Walker smugly instructed conservatives without competitive primaries not to cross over and help deliver Tiffany his weakest opponent. They could have just put a sock in it and let people decide. The margin was so close that this could have determined the election.
Hongheads: They got hosed by the Democratic establishment. But will they stay home in November now and tank Crowley? If those college kids had been on campus now, Hong probably would have won.
Tom Tiffany: He’s not a “loser” and in November he still might win (David Crowley has a LOT of baggage – a transit system mess, a budget that needed bailing out, racial formulas to determine park maintenance, a love of DEI, liberal positions, letting health care lapse for every employee, a sales tax hike, etc).
But Tiffany lost something last night because the race just got a lot harder for him. He’s now running against a normal liberal Democrat in a bad cycle instead of the weird lady who wants to cancel Thanksgiving. The election will be more about DJT than DSA now, and there’s Trump fatigue out there with independents.
Maybe Tiffany should have stayed silent on Hong until Aug. 12 instead of firing away at her. Plus, the lieutenant governor and Secretary of State candidates who pulled off surprise upsets will ensure that he gets a lot of questions about abortion and the 2020 election. Just great. And it was going so well! Not counting him out. Just saying that it just got harder.
RGA: A lot of money wasted on Hong goes down the drain.
Oppo research and October surprises: The oppo research doesn’t hold until October anymore due to social media, and it blew up too soon because a bunch of national MAGA influencers were mining her Twitter page for old tweets to earn a buck.
Fran Hong’s comms team: They compared her to Princess Diana, let a socialist go on FOX News to be hammered with tough questions, let her take a rally stage with Hasan Piker, and let her grab a megaphone and rant about a cop who shot a man who injured him with a knife. If they had kept her in bubble wrap for two weeks, she might have won.
Hasan Piker and Ilhan Omar: In retrospect, when they appeared with Hong on stage in that gleeful photo, they cost her the primary with the old white folks who actually turn out to vote.
Whoever financed the scurrilous anti-Mike Alfonso direct mail in the 7th congressional district: Guess that didn’t work!
State Republican Party, Will Martin and Nate Pollnow: Two of its endorsed candidates (for lieutenant governor and Secretary of State) went down in surprising flames. The party did not do enough to educate voters on these candidates and races.
And Martin and Pollnow were the best candidates for a general election and Tiffany – by far. The deeply thoughtful Martin, in particular, would have balanced the ticket geographically and with moderates. Varnam is a nice guy. But Tiffany/Varnam is going to create more issues for Tiffany to deal with now, and it makes the ticket even more hard right in a purple state. We are now going to spend a couple months watching the liberal media throw everything Jay Schroeder has ever said about the 2020 election into Tom Tiffany’s face. And they’re going to bring up abortion more on top of it.
Mixed:
Sean Duffy: Duffy Inc. got his son-in-law over, but Duffy whiffed by trying to publicly knife popular Republican incumbent legislator Chanz Green in a primary that Chanz ended up winning anyway.
Niina Baum and Andy Manske: They didn’t win their races (shot too high too soon,) but I ended up liking both of them. They’re genuine and care. Run for legislature some day.
2020 election deniers: Mike Lindell lost in Minnesota but Jay Schroeder staged an upset in the Wisconsin Secretary of State election. Unfortunately that means Tiffany will be asked about everything Schroeder has ever said or written. This has a lot of top Republicans very upset behind the scenes. (Don’t blame me. I’ve repeatedly said Biden won and that this narrative hurts Republicans in general elections here.)
Trump: Three endorsed candidates lost in the last couple weeks, including Lindell, and candidates in Tennessee and in Michigan. But he got Michael Alfonso over the line in the 7th congressional district of #Wisconsin by a huge margin over a former Iranian hostage. Michael’s on the winner list. Keep reading.
Who won/ who is a winner
Chanz Green: The Republican incumbent legislator won an Assembly primary Up North despite the last minute video from the sunglasses-wearing US Secretary of Transportation for his fringe opponent.
Mary Spicuzza and Molly Beck: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporters’ big “expose” that Mandela Barnes once had consensual s*x forced him out of the race and created the pathway Crowley needed. How impactful you were! The Pulitzers are calling. Just kidding. It was one of the most despicable stories ever written in the history of Wisconsin journalism, and, even worse, it worked. David Crowley should send them a fruit basket for their efforts.
Racial trope: See above big “expose.” We really did this? Write a huge story about the black guy once having consensual s*x at a convention? It’s disgusting, and it’s only in this column because it worked. Which Democrat leaked it?
Tony Evers: He has been underestimated by the right for years as a politician. One comment that Hong probably “won’t win” a general, and his voters came home. They trust him. The plot almost didn’t work because he engaged too late, but when he did, it mattered.
David Varnam and Jay Schroeder: They defeated Republican Party endorsed candidates to win the lieutenant governor and Secretary of State races.
Old white normal Democrats: They apparently don’t want a governor who has an anxiety attack around them at Culvers, and they don’t like BLM screaming things at them while they drink wine at Capitol Square concerts. Turns out that they also vote in low turnout August primaries whereas lots of other people just sit on social media, watch clever Hong videos, and act excited, but then stay home on their sofas eating Cheetos and never make it to the polls.
Dirt McGirk: ‘Dirty Dave’ (what Dirt called himself; don’t blame me) won big. David Crowley succeeded in quitting and then winning the primary anyway. That was not an easy feat.
Young Republicans (Ellen Schutt, Mike Alfonso, and Nick Ollinger): Ellen Schutt fell on her sword so a Republican leader could have a clear shot after being paired with him during redistricting, but then prevailed in another legislative contest last night against a tough opponent who ran unfair direct mail against her.
YR-backed Capt. Nick Ollinger won the Waukesha sheriff’s race despite a nasty social media climate and some internal dissent. Also he showed he will be a powerful leader by defending the Madison cop against pressure to stay silent.
Alfonso’s cabinet secretary dad-in-law got him the Trump endorsement, and he won a very Trump district over a Marine veteran. Alfonso won resoundingly, and his conservative values will elevate him over the wacky Democrat nominee, Fred Clark. It’s a super red district. He will soon be the nation’s youngest congressman.
They range in age from 26-41, but they will be a force for years to come, most likely.
The Democratic machine: Democrats are collective folks so they listen to the machine (unlike individualist conservatives). The establishment got its chosen candidates. Shadowy elite powerbrokers took out Emily Berge for operative Rebecca Cooke in the 3rd congressional district Dem primary; destroyed independent-minded state Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez for a recent liberal intern named Ismael Luna; and they stopped Fran Hong in her tracks. On the other side, the Republican machine failed to deliver.
Russell Goodwin: The Milwaukee Democrat legislator pushed back against a Democratic establishment attack.
Josh Schoemann: The Washington County exec deserves eternal credit for helping Tom Tiffany avoid a bloody primary. It’s what will give him a fighting chance.
Fred Clark: The avuncular forester from Baraboo won the Democratic primary in the 7th congressional district despite once getting caught on voice mail saying he wanted to “smack” a female constituent around. It’s a super Trumpy district, though, so he wouldn’t appear to have a chance in the general.
State Rep. Jim Piwowarczyk: He told everyone to stop talking about Fran Hong’s negatives for two weeks but no one listened to him, and now he looks like a sage. He came back from fishing and said, “Why is everyone going negative on Hong now? Everyone should shut up until Aug. 12.” Plus, Jim correctly defended the Madison cop early on and his endorsed candidate for Waukesha County sheriff won. He won too but didn’t have a primary opponent.
Vicki McKenna: She tried valiantly to tell Republicans without competitive primaries to cross over for Hong.
Waukesha County Sheriff Eric Severson: His endorsement mattered. His endorsed candidate got about the same total as a primary opponent who raised similar issues against him during the last race. And the union revealed the major issues against him were baseball caps, black or blue uniforms, and body cams (which are likely coming in 2027 anyway.) Some of his critics had disciplinary or criminal allegations in their pasts or their loved one did. There are some morale issues that are legitimate and Nick Ollinger must address, there is work to do… but Severson is a winner here.
My mom: Those who followed the saga of my reasonable Democrat mom know she was undecided until the end. She ended up voting for Crowley to stop Hong, and I guess she got her wish. In retrospect, my mom was the canary in the mine.
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