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Haley, DeSantis Outperform Trump In Faceoff With Biden, Poll Says

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Former Ambassador and Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis both perform better against President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup than former President Donald Trump, according to The Center Square Voters’ Voice poll.

Conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, the poll found that in a hypothetical general election head-to-head faceoff, Biden would have 48% support among likely voters compared to Trump’s 44%. However, DeSantis does better in the same faceoff, with Biden getting 44% support compared to DeSantis’ 47% support.

Haley also beats Biden in the same matchup with 44% support compared to Biden’s 41% support.

Both Haley’s and DeSantis’ leads are within the poll’s 1.96% margin of error.

“This is a fascinating finding in here and there are a couple of things that are worth highlighting here,” David Byler, chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. “Haley and DeSantis have pitched themselves as stronger general election candidates than Trump. That is explicit and implicit in their campaign messaging.

“They say that Trump might lose again or that Trump has baggage or that Trump won’t debate because I’m better on the issues,” Byler added. “You name it. What they are talking about is electability. So this poll in some ways validates Haley and DeSantis’ argument.”

The poll of 2,605 voters includes 1,035 Republicans, 1,074 Democrats, and 496 true Independents, and is among the most comprehensive in the country.

The poll comes ahead of the third Republican primary debate in Miami on Wednesday. Trump is not expected to participate, and despite his large lead, Trump’s legal issues could sink his campaign and make second place more important than ever.

Desantis outperform trump in faceoff with biden

Illustration by Kate Guenther

Notably, the poll found that Haley is better able to pull Democrats and Independent voters to her side than DeSantis or Trump.

“What you’ll notice is among true Independents, Biden and Trump are tied, but among true Independents you have a very slight lead for Ron DeSantis, just two points, but every bit counts,” Byler told The Center Square. “You have a sizeable lead for Nikki Haley among true Independents in her matchup with Joe Biden, so that is something that is pretty interesting finding.”

“Swing voters, when you give them a Biden versus Trump matchup, they’re split,” Byler added. “When you give them a Biden versus Haley matchup, they are more Haley favoring…”

The poll found that among likely voters, Biden has a 43% approval rate with 56% disapproving and the rest unsure.

Byler also pointed out that Haley is also able to pull about 5% more Democrats to her side than Biden would be able to pull in Republicans.

“Some of what is happening with this shift toward Haley is from Independents, some is from Democrats who are willing to give her a look,” Byler said.

According to a question asked of all likely voters irrespective of party, inflation and price increases are a crucial issue, with 48% naming it as one of the top three issues facing the country. Illegal immigration came in second with 35% of those surveyed saying the same. Crime and violence came in third with 27% naming it as one of their top three issues heading into next year’s presidential election.

Despite their potential success in a faceoff against Biden, both DeSantis and Haley face a chasm in support between themselves and Trump in the Republican primary.

The same poll found that Trump leads the Republican primary field with 59% support among likely voters. DeSantis comes in second at 13% support while Haley has 9% support.

Businessman and author Vivek Ramaswamy has 7% support while former Vice President Mike Pence, who has dropped out since the survey was conducted, is behind him at 5% support.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are tied at 2% support, according to the poll.

In addition, 1% of those Republican likely voters said they would vote for “none of these candidates” and another 1% said they would vote for “someone else not listed.”

The Republican primary’s Iowa Caucus is scheduled for January with the New Hampshire primary soon after.

Even if all other candidates dropped out of the race, DeSantis and Haley don’t appear ready to close the gap between themselves and Trump. The poll found that in a hypothetical matchup with Republican likely voters, Trump wins with 68% support compared to DeSantis’ 32% support. Trump does even better against Haley with 73% support compared to Haley’s 27% support.

“We tested specific matchups of [Trump] against Haley and him against DeSantis,” Byler said. “And what you saw when you had just a one-on-one matchup…Trump still cleaned up.”

Even still, Trump faces nearly 100 criminal charges, meaning his White House bid could be jeopardized at any time and suddenly thrust another Republican candidate to the top of the ticket. For now, it remains unclear who that candidate could be.

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 20-26 of this year with a margin of error of 1.92%.

Casey Harper
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Reposted with permission

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Wisconsin Lawmakers Push Questions About IDs For Illegal Immigrants, Voting

(The Center Square) – Some Wisconsin lawmakers are trying to calm fears about illegal immigrants getting IDs and voting in the state.

The Assembly Committee on Campaigns and Elections and the Senate Committee on Shared Revenue, Elections and Consumer Protection held a hearing Thursday with the Wisconsin Department of Transportation, some local election clerks and Fond du Lac County’s district attorney.

“We're not trying to get anybody into a bad spot here, or in a corner, or make accusations on that level,” Sen. Dan Knodl, R-Germantown, said. “We want our clerks, who are already stressed enough, to know that we are here to be there as an assist to them.”

Rep. Scott Krug, R-Nekoosa, said he wants to make sure voters have faith in Wisconsin’s electoral process.

“This is one of the topics that hit our inboxes quite a bit the last three months or so,” Krug added. “We thought it’s pretty important just to vet it out, to get all the information out to the public.”

The Wisconsin Elections Commission was invited to Thursday’s meeting but didn’t attend because commissioners were having a meeting of their own. But that left lawmakers’ questions unanswered.

Wis-DOT Deputy Secretary Kristina Boardman said Wisconsin is known as a strict voter ID state.

“I want to make very clear that Wis-DOT is required to provide free identification cards for U.S. citizens that request them for the purposes of voting, and that to be eligible for that free identification card one must be a U.S. citizen and at least 17 years of age,” Boardman said. “Wis-DOT staff do not determine voter eligibility or register anyone to vote. Someone who has a Wisconsin ID or a driver's license is eligible to register to vote online, and that information will be confirmed with Wisconsin DMV systems to ensure that the information entered for voter registration is consistent with the DMV's records

Boardman said in Wisconsin, less than a fraction of one percent of ID requests are fraudulent.

“We put together [a] case activity report, assemble all of the documentation that we have, we have the investigator that had the case pull that together, and we do refer that to law enforcement so that they can take whatever action is appropriate,” Boardman added. “We note what statutes we believe may have been violated. And then it's up to law enforcement to take action.”

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Senate Republicans Override Evers’ Vetoes

(The Center Square) – On Tuesday, the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Senate voted to override nine vetoes from Gov. Tony Evers, including the vetoes that scuttled PFAS clean-up money, millions of dollars that were earmarked for hospitals in Eau Claire and Chippewa Falls and a plan that would allow advanced practice registered nurses to work more independently.

“The legislature has passed hundreds of bills to solve problems facing Wisconsin businesses and families. Most of these bills were signed into law, but many were vetoed by a governor more focused on politics than policies that help everyday Wisconsinites,” Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu said Tuesday. “Overriding the governor’s obstructive vetoes is the last, best way to address these critical issues.”

The override votes came one day after Evers sued the legislature over nearly $200 million that is attached to some of his vetoes.

Most of that money is the $125 million that’s supposed to go toward PFAS clean up in Wisconsin.

“For the fifth time this legislative session, I voted to provide Wisconsin families with the largest investment in clean drinking water in state history – five more times than every Democrat legislator in this state combined. The bill that Gov. Evers vetoed (SB 312) would have created a grant program that targets this critical funding to areas of the state most heavily impacted by PFAS contamination while protecting innocent landowners from financial ruin,” Sen Duey Stroebel, R-Cedarburg, said.

Evers has accused the legislature’s budget-writing Joint Finance Committee of obstructing his plans to clean up Wisconsin’s drinking water, and of delaying his other actions across the state.

LeMahieu said Evers is simply playing the game.

“While Gov. Evers plays politics, the legislature will continue to do the right thing on behalf of the people of our state,” LeMahieu added.

Senate Democrats responded with game-playing accusations of their own.

“Coming in to do all these veto overrides was clearly a stunt to try to appeal to voters ahead of the fall election,” Den. Mark Spreitzer, D-Beloit, said. “Clearly Republicans were hearing from things in their district and wanted political cover. I don't think they got political cover today. I think what they got was people realizing just how afraid they are.”

But Tuesday’s veto overrides are largely symbolic.

While Republicans in the Wisconsin Senate have a veto-proof majority, Republicans in the Wisconsin Assembly do not.

trump vs biden

Trump Holds Lead Over Biden Heading Toward November

With less than half a year until the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump holds a sizable lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in several swing states.

While the overall national polling varies and shows a tighter race, Trump holds significant leads in several swing states.

According to Real Clear Politics, Trump leads in a slew of key battleground states like Arizona (+5.2), Georgia (+4.6), Michigan (+0.8), Nevada (+6.2), North Carolina (+5.4), Pennsylvania (+2.0), and Wisconsin (+0.6).

Other polling has shown Trump with a dominant lead in the Sun Belt while performing less well against Biden in some rust belt swing states.

“As the old saying goes, good gets better and bad gets worse, and it’s clear President Biden is in bad shape right now,” Colin Reed, a Republican strategist, former campaign manager for U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and co-founder of South and Hill Strategies, told The Center Square. “Five and a half months is an eternity in politics, and there’s theoretically still time to right the ship, but it’s getting late early for the president, especially when Father Time remains undefeated and doubts about his age continue to grow. “

According to the Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, Trump leads Biden 46.1% to 44.9%.

A New York Times poll released this week showed leads for Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania but slightly trailing Biden in Wisconsin, raising concerns among supporters.

Trump’s lead has been in large part fueled by minority voters flocking to his side.

Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating has plummeted since taking office. While that is not unusual for incumbents, Biden’s approval is lower than recent presidents.

Gallup recently released polling data showing that in the 13th quarter of Biden’s presidency, he averaged a 38.7% approval rating, worse than Trump at the same time in his term.

“None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower 13th-quarter average than Biden,” Gallup said.

Axios reported this week that Biden and his team think the polls don’t represent Americans’ actual feelings and that the president’s position is strong.

“They're still 50% (well 45%) to win, per betting markets,” pollster Nate Silver wrote on X. “But Biden has been behind Trump in polls for a year now. His approval is in the tank, and voters have been clear they think he's too old. If Trump wins, history will not remember Biden kindly.”

Meanwhile, Trump spends valuable campaign time in a series of court appearances for his myriad of federal prosecution court dates.

“I’m under a gag order,” Trump told reporters after a court appearance Tuesday. “Nobody has actually seen anything like it ... I'm beating him in every poll and I have a gag order, so I think it's totally unconstitutional."

Republicans have blasted Biden for Trump’s prosecution, accusing Biden of using the Justice Department against his political opponent.

“Despite Far Left Democrats’ illegal election interference, President Trump is beating Joe Biden in the polls!” Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., wrote on X Tuesday. “Voters see right through the sham Biden Trials and know President Trump is the best choice for president.”

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