Pollsters are using phrases like “purely a toss-up,” and “dead-tied” to describe Wisconsin’s marquee political match-ups less than one week before Election Day.
The latest Marquette Law School Poll came out Wednesday. It shows both the race for governor and U.S. Senate tied.
“It’s a two-point [Ron] Johnson lead, 50-48. That’s a tightening from a six-point Johnson lead three weeks ago,” Marquette’s director of polling, Charles Franklin told reporters. “On the governor’s race though we have a dead-tie, 48-48.”
Both races have tightened.
Johnson, who is the incumbent Republican U.S. Senator, had a six-point lead over Mandela Barnes in October’s poll.
“In August we had Barnes up by seven, right after the primary,” Franklin explained. “Then Johnson by one point in early September, then we had him up by six points three weeks ago. Now that race has tightened to two points.”
Franklin said the race for U.S. Senate is now “purely a toss-up.”
The race between Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels has been essentially tied for months.
“In August it was a four-point Evers lead. Then a three-point lead. Then, three weeks ago, it was a one-point Evers margin. And now it’s a dead tie,” Franklin said.
He added that the governor’s polling this year is almost identical to the polling from 2018, which had the race between then-Gov. Scott Walker and candidate Tony Evers.
The poll continues to show Gov. Evers has a negative job approval rating. Pollsters say 47% of voters don’t approve of how he’s handled the job of governor, while 46% do.
Franklin said next week’s elections will likely come down to voter turnout.
This is where he says Democrats currently have an advantage.
“Ten percent of Democrats have already voted. Three percent of Republicans have,” Franklin noted. “It may well be that Republicans make up that gap on Election Day, or before Election Day. It’s possible that Democrats have really managed to mobilize their voters and managed to take advantage of early voting.”
Election Day is next Tuesday.