Far be it for me to suggest a better way to negotiate with Russia and Ukraine as well as the tariffs, and of course, I don’t have all the information that the White House has, but maybe I can offer a few humble suggestions. Of course, hindsight is 20/20.
In terms of Russia and Ukraine, I would suggest that the best negotiating strategy would be to tell Putin that the U.S. will provide Ukraine with all the military hardware needed for Ukraine topush the Russians out of Ukraine. Then I would say to Putin that the U.S. is giving permission to Ukraine to enter and take and hold Russian territory, and that when the negotiation for an end to the war comes, the U.S. will back Ukraine in keeping that territory.
So long as Putin sees the White House pounding on Zelensky to give in, Putin sees that as an opportunity to increase his intensity of attacks on Ukraine, as we have seen. A little less ‘blue sky’ would also help, i.e. don’t build up the public’s expectations so high for quick results, because that boxes the negotiator in. Blue sky is car dealer talk for over embellishing a car for sale. Better to do what I tell my staff; under promise and over perform.
The real hang up in the negotiations will be that Zelensky can’t agree to give up territory because it’s not within his presidential authority, not even to give up Crimea, which Russia stole and has occupied for more than ten years. I don’t see how any president of a democracy could agree to give up territory. That would require an act of their parliament or Congress, and he’s not going to obtain that. So, the answer would have to be that Zelensky signs an agreement that does not specifically require him to give up Crimea or any other territory. That subject should be left unstated. The agreement pretty much comes down to two issues – Russia leaves mainland Ukraine and both nations end the war or to a permanent ceasefire like that that exists in Korea. The question of Russia paying for the damage, i.e. the rebuilding of Ukraine, could be used as leverage to secure an agreement, i.e. agree now and Russia doesn’t have to pay war reparations. Wait and there will be a big bill due later. (Meanwhile, ask all the nations of Europe to chip in on the rebuilding, and secure the Ukrainian mineral rights to pay back the American taxpayers.)
Putin needs to be convinced that he stands the real risk of losing face – which will happen if his forces get forced out of Ukraine. And if he loses face, then he’s finished. His buddies in Russia will make sure he is taken out of office. And you and he knows what that means. And speaking of losing face. Zi of China can’t afford to lose face either, which is why he’s doubling down on tariffs. Likewise, Trump can’t afford to lose face with Zi either, because then Zi will own him, and worse, that would embolden Zi in regards to Taiwan leading to war. Trump should keep the pressure on China, by isolating China – by signing zero tariff deals with other nations – and getting those nations to agree not to trade with China.
But as with the Russia, a little less blue sky on tariffs would help too. I would have started with a few small nations that have small tariff surpluses with the U.S. (and little to lose due to the small tariffs), and then leverage the U.S. power to get signed agreements with those few. Then I would work through the next set of nations with slightly larger tariff surpluses, concentrating on allies who will cooperate. This should be a rolling negotiation (rather the present method of drinking from a fire hose), so that you can use the ‘wins’ of the early negotiations to build momentum with the more difficult countries. But the wins will also pressure the leftover nations to settle the tariff negotiations sooner.
I would then save China for last, isolating them and not go to them until you have all the others signed and on board first, unless the idea is install and retain high tariffs on China permanently. It won’t take too long for the super high tariffs on Chinese junk (err, products) to completely de-stabilize their economy. Just imagine the pressure that the workers and companies of China will bring on Zi as sales dry up. And remember, the communist party owns an interest in every company over there, so when profits dry up (and that only takes about a 3% to 5% reduction in sales), the communist party leadership will start questioning Zi behind his back, eventually leading to his removal.
Again, the tariff agreements with the other nations should also provide for a restriction on those nations not to trade with China or to maintain the same tariffs by those nations on Chinese goods. I’ve travelled China quite extensively on three different prolonged trips. The challenge that I learned/observed is that people who grew up in a communist nation learn to survive and to survive they must lie and cheat the communist system – just to live, to feed themselves and their families. They don’t have a choice.
No agreement in writing will mean anything. Only actual action matters. What this means is that you can’t trust anything they say or represent. As with past negotiations and agreements with China, they didn’t honor those and they won’t honor the next ones. Therefore, you have extract something from them in the immediate present time, real time. What will they give up in exchange for doing business with us? How about pulling their navy out of the South Pacific Sea? How about mothballing their new ships? Any promises of the future are useless.
And I would not have exempted Apple iphones. Iphone prices are so sky high that Apple can afford to absorb any tariffs. The Apple iphone has defied the economic law that says that as technology ages and becomes more efficient, the price comes down. The iphone price has remained high and in fact, has increased over time. Why? Because they have a monopoly. As a result, they can take the hit on tariffs and don’t need an exemption.
Lastly, the EU courts fine American tech giants hundreds of millions of dollars. Yes, right in the middle of a tariff war, the EU courts double down on dumb and tariff, err, ahh, fine American companies hundreds of millions of dollars, which is no different than a tariff for operating in Europe. This has to stop, because it’s literally stealing from American consumers who foot that bill.
So, that’s my advice; not that I know anything.
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