Friday, July 4, 2025
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Friday, July 4, 2025

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Kamala Harris Dodges One October Surprise, Faces Another in Tight Race

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American voters are one month out from election day, and some new developments threaten to upset the close race.

According to Real Clear Politics’ polling average, the two candidates are nearly tied in several key swing states.

Former President Donald Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina while Vice President Kamala Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, though the leads in all six of those states are less than 2 points, within the margin of error in most polls.

They are tied in Pennsylvania, according to RCP.

However, the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing negotiations over port closures on the East and Gulf coasts have the potential to be a crippling October surprise for Harris.

As vice president, Harris has tried to walk a fine line of taking credit for the economic recovery under Biden and other accomplishments while attempting to skirt responsibility for the border crisis, 40-year-high inflation and other problems during that same term.

In particular, the border has been a troublesome issue for Harris since Biden appointed her to take the lead on it, though she has since downplayed her role as “border czar” as illegal immigration soared while she was in office.

More than 14 million foreign nationals have illegally crossed U.S. borders since Biden-Harris took office, The Center Square reported.

This October presents more potential problems. Experts warned the port strike could cause prices to soar on all kinds of goods, from food to alcohol to cars. A tentative deal reached Thursday that reportedly will give workers a 62% raise temporarily ended the three-day shutdown, which would have been crippling for the U.S. economy.

The American Feed Industry Association warned this week that the port closures could “drive up costs” and wreak havoc akin to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The failure of the [United States Maritime Alliance] and [International Longshoremen’s Association] to reach a labor agreement or of the Biden administration to intervene before the contract deadline now means that U.S. animal food manufacturers face a dire trading situation that mirrors – or could be worse than – the days of the COVID-19 pandemic,” AFIA President and Chief Executive Officer Constance Cullman said in a statement.

With the recent spike in inflation already, voters may have little patience for Harris, who has overseen a price spike of more than 20% since she took office, but the settlement likely will ease some concerns.

Polling has consistently shown for months that inflation ranks as the top concern for voters.

The strike has ended for now, but with the details still being hashed out, it is possible the deal could still fall through and create a major political liability for Harris.

The escalating tension in the Middle East also could suddenly become an election issue if the brewing war between Israel and Iran escalates to a broader regional conflict that draws in more U.S. forces.

The U.S. helped shoot down Iranian missiles that were fired in the latest Iranian attack on Israel. Israel is at war with the terrorist group Hamas, which launched the Oct. 7 terror attack, as well as Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terrorist group that has been firing on northern Israel for months.

Harris has so far politically navigated the issue better than her nominated predecessor, President Joe Biden, who regularly faced protests from the left wing of his party.

At the debate this week, that conflict was the first question asked, and Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, clearly stated Israel’s “right to defend itself.”

But if the powder keg explodes in October, Harris may find it difficult to distance herself from responsibility as Trump continues to point out he had no such conflicts when he was in office.

“There is no question that economic uncertainty and international unrest are key features of the Biden-Harris Administration,” Republican strategist Nathan Brand told The Center Square. “Voters clearly do not want more of the same, so that could spell trouble for Harris in November.”

At the vice presidential debate last week, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, was happy to blast Harris for the economic difficulties during her time as vice president. For now, no future debates are scheduled.

“Honestly Tim, I think you’ve got a tough job here,” Vance told Walz. “You’ve got to pretend that Donald Trump didn’t deliver rising take home pay, which of course he did. You’ve got to pretend that Donald Trump didn’t deliver lower inflation, which of course he did. And then you’ve simultaneously got to defend Kamala Harris’s atrocious economic record, which has made gas, groceries, and housing unaffordable for American citizens.”

Casey Harper
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Reposted with permission

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2026 GOP Candidate Josh Schoemann Challenges Evers’ Budget Approach

(The Center Square) – Josh Schoemann, the only Republican currently in the race for governor next year, is criticizing Gov. Tony Evers’ approach to the next state budget by comparing it to his plans in Washington County.

“In Washington County our budget cycle starts right now, and it’s not due until November. We will propose our budget goals to the County Board in the next couple of months. We will share ‘This is what we’re thinking.’ It gives them months of time to think those through, give us feedback, and [have] that kind of dialogue,” Schoemann explained in an interview on News Talk 1130 WISN.

Schoemann said that is far better than the approach Evers is taking again this year.

“That’s not how government is supposed to work,” Schoemann said. “It’s not the vision of the governor. It’s not the vision of any one person.”

Evers and the Republican legislative leaders who will write the budget have been involved in on-again, off-again budget talks this month. On Thursday, the governor’s office said those talks were off once again because of gridlock in the Senate.

“Ultimately, the Senate needs to decide whether they were elected to govern and get things done or not,” Evers spokesperson Britt Cudaback said in a post on X.

Schoemann’s criticism of Evers is nothing new. He has long been a critic of the governor and has turned that criticism up since launching his campaign for governor.

But the recent criticism was also aimed at other Republicans who may jump into the 20206 governor’s race later this year.

“Nobody else in this race on the Republican side, being rumored to this point, has the executive leadership of skills and history to be able to show ‘This is how I’ve done it before, and here’s how we’ll do it Madison,’” Schoemann said. “The results in Washington County speak for themselves.”

Northwoods Congressman Tom Tiffany is also rumored to be looking to get into the Republican race. Before he went to Congress, Tiffany was a Republican lawmaker in Madison.

Businessman and veteran Bill Berrien is also on the short list of likely GOP candidates for 2026.

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Wisconsin Budget Negotiations Reach Impasse Between Evers, Legislature

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin budget negotiations have reached an impasse with both sides pointing fingers at the other in Wednesday afternoon statements.

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said Republican Legislative leaders backed out of negotiations after he agreed to “an income tax cut targeting Wisconsin’s middle-class and working families and eliminating income taxes for certain retirees.” He said Republican leaders would not agree to “meaningful increased investments in child care, K-12 schools, and the University of Wisconsin System.”

Republican Assembly leaders said the two sides were "far apart. Senate leaders say Evers’ desires “extend beyond what taxpayers can afford.”

“The Joint Committee on Finance will continue using our long-established practices of crafting a state budget that contains meaningful tax relief and responsible spending levels with the goal of finishing on time,” said a statement from Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, and Assembly Finance Co-Chairman Mark Born, R-Beaver Dam.

Evers said that there were meetings between the sides every day this week before the impasse.

“I told Republicans I’d support their half of the deal and their top tax priorities – even though they’re very similar to bills I previously vetoed – because I believe that’s how compromise is supposed to work, and I was ready to make that concession in order to get important things done for Wisconsin’s kids,” Evers said.

Senate Republican leadership said that good faith negotiations have occurred since April on a budget compromise.

“Both sides of these negotiations worked to find compromise and do what is best for the state of Wisconsin,” said a statement from Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, R-Oostburg, and Senate Joint Finance Co-Chairman Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green.

In early May, the Joint Committee on Finance took 612 items out of Gov. Tony Evers’ budget proposal, including Medicaid expansion in the state, department creations and tax exemptions.

Born previously estimated that Evers’ budget proposal would lead to $3 billion in tax increases over the two-year span.

Wisconsin Policy Forum estimated that the proposal would spend down more than $4 billion of the state’s expected $4.3 billion surplus if it is enacted.

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DOJ Begins California Title IX Investigation Over ‘Trans’ Boys Dominating Girls’ Sports

The U.S. Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division announced it is investigating California for violating Title IX by allowing males to participate in female student sports.

“Title IX exists to protect women and girls in education,” said Harmeet K. Dhillon, assistant attorney general for Civil Rights. “It is perverse to allow males to compete against girls, invade their private spaces, and take their trophies.”

In February, President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning males from participating in female student sports, and he has threatened to block California's federal funding for continuing to defy his order. With California facing deficits in the tens of billions of dollars each year, it's unclear how the state would offset any losses or pauses in federal funding.

Notably, California Gov. Gavin Newsom hosted conservative pundit Charlie Kirk on his podcast and told Kirk that he thinks it’s “deeply unfair” that boys are participating in girls’ sports.

When asked later at a press conference what this means for state policy, Newsom demurred, painting the matter as a marginal, non-issue not worth his time.

“You're talking about a very small number of people, a very small number of athletes, and my responsibility is to address the pressing issues of our time,” said Newsom.

The California Interscholastic Federation, which governs student sports in California, has since responded to Trump’s threat by announcing a new pilot program to allow girls who otherwise would have qualified for sports finals had the finalist spots in girls’ sports not been taken by transgender-identifying boys to participate in said finals.

Title IX was signed into law by President Richard Nixon in 1972 to ensure that schools could not discriminate against female students. It requires they be provided with equal opportunities to engage in athletics, extracurriculars and education.

DOJ’s letter of interest says it is investigating whether California’s Assembly Bill 1266, which requires transgender-identifying students to be allowed to participate in sports consistent with their gender identities, violates Title IX.

“As a result of CIF’s policy, California’s top-ranked girls’ triple jumper, and second-ranked girls’ long-jumper, is a boy,” wrote the DOJ. “As recently as May 17, this male athlete was allowed to take winning titles that rightfully belong to female athletes in both events.”

“This male athlete will now be allowed to compete against those female athletes again for a state title in long, triple, and high jump,” continued the DOJ. “Other high school female athletes have alleged that they were likewise robbed of podium positions and spots on their teams after they were forced to compete against males.”

Should the DOJ find California is in violation of Title IX, it says it will “take appropriate action to eliminate that discrimination, including seeking injunctive relief.”