By Kirt Johnson
Chairman
Kewaunee County Republican Party
There are a few so-called Republicans in Wisconsin who immediately blame the Republican Party of Wisconsin when we lose a statewide election and announce, based on nothing but their own statements and not on any factual evidence, that had they been running RPW, the Republican candidate most certainly would have won! These folks believe that simply saying something and repeating it makes it so!? Really! This is the modus operandi of a 10-year-old child on a Little League team who blames everyone else when the team loses and then tries to take all the credit when the team wins.
Time for a reality check.
First, let’s be honest. The statements made by these individuals are purely self-serving and not based in reality or fact. These folks make these completely unsubstantiated claims because they will literally say and do anything to try to gain control of our state party. That’s a fact.
Here’s some more reality — each election result is shaped by a multitude of factors. Some of those factors include:
- Recent substantial political events
- The candidate’s appeal, experience, background, etc.
- The opposing candidate’s appeal, experience, background, etc.
- The amount of national attention focused on the race
- The amount of money spent, how the money is spent, and where (TV, Social media, radio, etc.)
- Endorsements and the timing of those endorsements
- The degree of negativity in the campaign
- The level of motivation of the rank-and-file in each party
- Timing, strategy, tactics, luck, etc.
Those on our side of the ledger who contribute to the effort to win a statewide campaign include our candidate and his campaign team, county parties, political consultants, RPW, third-party PACs, innumerable conservative groups, the RNC, individual contributors, etc. All of these numerous contributing factors are not controlled by one entity—that’s a fact.
All of the GOP/conservative organizations involved in statewide elections have plenty of smart, hard-working, committed individuals who want to win elections. That is also a fact. After each election, whether you win or lose, it is important to evaluate what you did well and where you could improve. RPW and other Republican groups are doing their due diligence in that regard after this recent Supreme Court race.
So, let’s look at our recent Supreme Court race. Voter turnout was up statewide almost 30% compared to the April 2023 Supreme Court election. The huge increase in turnout was due to the massive national attention focused on this race and the money that followed. It was the first major statewide race in the country following the November 2024 election.
As Sen. Ron Johnson has noted, what happened seems pretty clear. Democrats were outraged that Trump won in November and were highly motivated to strike back. While the GOP turnout was also up, too many of our good November Trump voters did not show up in April, in spite of all of us desperately trying to make clear to our supporters how critical this election was for our state and President Trump. We had the votes to win; if more Trump voters had turned out, we would have won. The fact that they did not turn out in the numbers we had hoped for definitely can’t be laid solely at the feet of RPW – sorry, Turning Point.
Yes, that brings me to Turning Point. Turning Point does some good things for the Republican party and the conservative movement, especially with younger voters. However, it is not a very well-kept secret that Turning Point and its allies want to gain control of RPW, and it appears to me that they may be willing to do so by any means necessary.
Turning Point not so subtly suggests that they could do sooooo much better than anyone else in running our state party. Turning Point advocates will tell you that they have the best and the brightest talent, are more motivated and hard-working, and have the best data and the best door-knocking app in the entire universe. Really?! Let’s look at the available evidence and facts.
There are at least three major counties in our state that are clearly tied to Turning Point – Milwaukee, Dane, and Brown. Based on Turning Point’s own claims, we are led to believe that these counties must be leading the way when it comes to election success. But are these Turning Point counties really getting the results that would make one believe that Turning Point has the silver bullets to completely change the playing field for conservatives and Republicans in this state? The answer is clearly NO!
In 2023, the conservative Supreme Court candidate, Dan Kelly, got 44.5% of the vote statewide. In the 2025 election, the conservative Supreme Court candidate, Brad Schimel, got 44.9% of the vote. These are almost identical results. Turnout was basically up in every county in the state, an average of 25-30% in 2025 compared to 2023. The key for Republicans was to improve the percentages for our Supreme Court candidate in each county over 2023.
Turning Point has been working to take over various county parties in the state and is clearly established in Milwaukee, Dane, and Brown counties the past couple of years. That being the case, and based on their own self-promoting rhetoric, we would expect these Turning Point counties to substantially outperform all of the other counties in the state and significantly improve their results from 2023 to 2025.
So, let’s compare the April 2023 Supreme Court election results in these counties with their April 2025 Supreme Court election results. I’ll start with Milwaukee County. In 2023, Kelly got 27% of the vote in Milwaukee County. In 2025, Schimel got 25.3% of the vote!! Not only did this Turning Point county not move the needle, the needle actually went in the opposite direction!
In Dane County, Kelly got 18% of the vote in 2023 and Schimel got 18.3% of the vote in 2025. Not exactly an increase to write home about! And in Brown County, Kelly got 48.24% in 2023, which is basically what Schimel got in 2025! These results are not exactly awe-inspiring and certainly are not results that could lend credence to the claim that Turning Point would be a God-send in running our party.
There is one additional set of facts that we can look to in order to evaluate Turning Point’s capabilities in running a state party. Arizona has been Turning Point’s home base of operation for some time, and presumably is the shining example of their prowess and ability to win statewide.
Here are some facts that should give everyone pause. Arizona has a Democrat Governor. Arizona has a Democrat Attorney General. Arizona has a Democrat Secretary of State. And in the 2024 election, the Arizona Republican Senate candidate got beaten by a much larger margin than our Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate, Eric Hovde. It would appear that Turning Point does not seem to have the magic touch.
Now, my point here is not to say that Turning Point is worthless. Far from it. As I indicated, they have done some very good things with a voter block that we need to continue to pursue and cultivate – young voters. We need them to continue to work with us to win elections. However, the reality is that Turning Point is no better than most of the other players that are involved in working on behalf of Republicans and conservatives in statewide elections. Turning Point’s assertions that they would do so much better running RPW are totally unfounded, disingenuous, and self-serving.
Moreover, I would argue that those in our own party who publicly trash RPW and fellow Republican candidates and elected officials are actually helping Democrats win elections. All the negativity they generate may reduce voter intensity in our base and cause some of our voters not to support our Republican candidates in the general election. The November 2024 results in a few Assembly seats, and our U.S. Senate race gives credence to that concern. At the end of the day, we need Turning Point to join the team and work with all of us instead of trying to tear down and destroy our state party.
