Eric Toney 2.0 should keep Josh Kaul up at night.
Toney, the Fond du Lac County DA, narrowly lost to Kaul last time around by only 35,000 votes, but there have been changes since that time. Toney was always an AG candidate out of central casting: A prosecutor, an elected District Attorney, a long-distance runner, a rule-of-law and law-and-order guy who earned the support of sheriffs and DAs throughout the state.
Here are 10 ways that Toney’s candidacy is stronger this time around.
1. No Bloody Primary
There’s no bloody primary on the Republican side (at least for now). In fact, all signs are pointing to Toney having a clear primary field. If they want to take back the Attorney General’s office, the Grand Poobahs of Wisconsin GOP politics should make sure it stays that way (are there Grand Poobahs?). Last time, Toney spent months fending off vicious attacks from a primary opponent and outside attack ads/direct mail. This time, he can focus on Kaul.
2. A Different Media Landscape
The country’s media ecosphere is very different today due to increased Facebook distribution and, more critically, Elon Musk created a free speech space at X. Back then, the media censored A LOT of stories that were bad for Kaul.
If you don’t believe us, read our stories on Kaul’s office botching a crime victims’ audit response, on his staffer’s failures in the Darrell Brooks case, and how angry the mother of the notorious Halloween Killer’s victim was at him… and ask yourself why you never saw those stories.
Today, the ability to bypass the warped legacy media filter and reach audiences has never been greater. This helps Toney because he wasn’t treated fairly by the legacy press. Stories that were censored will get out. More people will learn about Toney in less biased environments. In this same realm, the AP is far weaker than it was in 2022 due to some newspapers dropping the wire service.
3. Years of Working the Grassroots & Residual Name ID
Toney has spent years now getting to know people in the grassroots base. There is enormous goodwill for him in the conservative base that wasn’t there last time because he was an unknown. He even had to fight to get to speak at Lincoln Day events last time.
This time, there is deep affection for Toney in the conservative base, as many people have met him multiple times. He is very hard-working, straightforward, and likable. He’s seemingly everywhere and has been doing this for years.
Toney also enjoys some residual name ID that he didn’t have last time. This all gives him a stronger foundation to start from.
4. Josh Kaul Is Weaker
Kaul is weaker. The AG’s bailing on the governor’s race exposed that he’s not beloved in the Democrat base. Who knew? We’ve heard at least one top Democrat describe Kaul as “lazy” behind the scenes.
5. Josh Kaul STILL Hasn’t Fixed the Crime Lab & His Excuses Have Expired
Kaul STILL hasn’t fixed the crime lab, and his COVID excuse has run out. He will try to blame lack of funding, except Toney helped get him more positions. Kaul defeated Brad Schimel on a promise that he would fix the crime lab, and he simply hasn’t done it. It’s the same issue that bedeviled Kaul’s mom, the former AG (is Josh Kaul a “nepo baby”?)
6. Josh Kaul Has Become Increasingly Ideological
While neglecting core public safety functions like the crime lab, Kaul has become even more ideological than he was before. Example: his recent legal effort to prevent non-citizens from being removed from voter rolls. He’s turned his office into a partisan cudgel against Trump.
7. Eric Toney Has More Gravitas
Toney has grown in stature. For example, he has been president of the Wisconsin District Attorneys Association. He’s older, more seasoned, and more humanized due to his heart surgery recovery (but still only 41).
8. Eric Toney Will Have Stronger Coattails
Toney should have a stronger Republican governor candidate’s coattails this time. Last time, the weakness of Republican Tim Michels dragged Toney down. This time, there are stronger candidates and no incumbent. Toney outperformed Michels and came close last time, but he was dragged down by that flawed ticket.
9. The Issues Favor Eric Toney
Toney made it clear that he will make immigration a core plank of his campaign. The issues favor Toney. Immigration, for example, is at the forefront of the public’s imagination right now, and it’s an issue with crossover appeal. Toney, who strikes a bipartisan and pragmatic message, is focused on the subset of illegal immigrants charged with crimes.
10. People Seek Change
Kaul has worn out his welcome. Three terms? People often vote for change.
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