A new poll by Emerson College/The Hill shows that Senate Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s lead over Republican businessman Eric Hovde is in a free fall – she leads by only 1.2 percent. In July, the same pollster had the incumbent Baldwin with a 6-point lead.
In the U.S. Senate race, 48.9 percent now say they are planning to vote for Baldwin. 47.7 percent are planning to vote for Republican Eric Hovde. 3.3 percent are undecided.
Boosting Hovde: The largest percentage of Wisconsin voters say the economy is the most pressing issue facing the state, and they’re more likely to choose Hovde. Baldwin’s bread-and-butter issues – like abortion and healthcare – just aren’t the most pressing issues to voters right now, according to the poll.
The poll was conducted August 25-28, 2024. The results fall within the margin for error.
Baldwin has also been hit with conflict of interest questions.
Sen. Baldwin's massive potential conflict of interest continues to leave more questions than answers.
There are massive conflicts of interest here that merit further examination — just the kind we've sadly come to expect from career Washington politicians like Sen. Baldwin. https://t.co/fER24SBYin
— Eric Hovde (@EricHovde) August 29, 2024
The poll has some observers on social media urging Republicans to pull money from Arizona – where Republican candidate Kari Lake lagged far behind her Democrat opponent in the same poll – and shift it to Wisconsin’s Senate race.
REDIRECT ALL LAKE FUNDS TO HOVDE NOW! https://t.co/Vl4srWzi6Q
— Wisconsin’s Conservative Sponge (@wiz_political) August 29, 2024
The same Emerson poll shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Wisconsin. In the presidential race, 49.1 percent are planning to vote for Trump and 48.3 percent for Harris. Only 1.5 percent were undecided, and only 1.1. percent plan to vote for someone else.
That’s a slight improvement for Trump since July, when the same pollster found the presidential race tied in Wisconsin. It’s also bad news for Harris because she would be expected to get a post-convention bump.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys also found a tight race between Harris and Trump in other battleground states:
- Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%), according to the pollster.
- The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%), the pollster wrote.
- “In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%),” according to the poll.
The Wisconsin segment of the poll shows:
In the poll, 52% disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, with 41 percent approving and 7 percent neutral or no opinion.
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers fares better; 46.2 percent approve of how he is doing, and 42.4 percent disapprove, with 11.4 percent neutral. However, that’s somewhat ominous for Evers because, read another way, more than half of people don’t approve of the job Evers is doing
The poll sampled slightly more Republicans: 33.1 percent were Democrats, 36.4 percent were Republicans, and 30.5 percent were Independents.
In the poll, 47.3 percent said they voted for Biden in 2020, 46.6 percent for Trump, and 3.8 percent for someone else. 2.3 percent did not vote.
Only 5.5 percent said it’s possible they could change their mind. When undecideds are counted based on who they are leaning toward, 49.8 percent choose Trump and 49.1 percent choose Harris.
In the poll, 48.4 percent have a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of Harris. 50.8 percent have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of her.
51.7 percent have a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of Trump, with 48 percent having a somewhat or very favorable opinion.
A whopping 46.3 percent of people polled ranked the economy as the number 1 issue facing Wisconsin. Threats to democracy came in a distant second at 12.7 percent. Third was housing affordability at 7.4 percent, fourth was healthcare at 7.3 percent and immigration was next at 6.5 percent.
The poll asked whether project 2025 – a thinktank project that Trump has repeatedly disavowed – makes people more or less likely to vote for Trump. 13 percent said more likely, 37.8 percent said less likely, 37.7 percent said no difference, and 11.4 percent weren’t familiar with it.
As for Trump’s policy position no taxes on tips (which was copied by Harris), 65.6 percent support it, 19.5 percent want tips taxed, and 15 percent had no opinion.
The crosstabs show that most voters who are concerned about the economy prefer Hovde – 67.1 percent.
He also does well with voters concerned about immigration and crime. She does best with voters worried about abortion and threats to Democracy.
Baldwin is doing better than Hovde with Black and Latino voters. There’s a massive gender gap with men preferring Hovde, and women preferring Baldwin.
Trump does better than Harris on the economy, crime, immigration, and foreign policy.
