Thursday, July 10, 2025
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Thursday, July 10, 2025

Milwaukee Press Club 'Excellence in Wisconsin Journalism' 2020 & 2021 Award Winners

Trump Polling Better Than 2020 in 6 of 7 Battleground States

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In many battleground states, former President Donald Trump is in better position this election cycle compared to the same time in the 2020 election cycle when he lost to Joe Biden.

In six of the seven consensus states, Trump’s polling average is better than the same point four years ago. Ninety-three electoral college votes ride on Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (six).

Biden won six of those states in 2020 – North Carolina was the exception – and the electoral college 306-232.

Polling information from Project 538 is included in the following state by state summaries.

Michigan

Michigan is a perfect example of this trend.

At this point in 2020, Biden led Trump by nearly 8%. This year, Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump by only 1.8%, which is well within the margin of error.

Harris polls better than Biden when he was in the race in June and July. Michigan has the trifecta of Democrats for governor and majorities in both chambers of the Legislature.

Biden was leading Trump by 7.9% in polling heading into Election Day. He then won by just 2.8%.

This year, Harris’ 5% behind Biden could be pivotal.

Arizona

Arizona is seeing a very similar trend to Michigan.

In 2020, Biden led Trump by an average of 4.8%. Compared to Trump’s lead today in the state of nearly 1%, polling has Trump up nearly 6% compared to his 2020 average.

Harris is still within the margin of error, usually about 3% to 4% on most polls.

Biden led the polls by 2.6% going into Election Day and won by 11,000 votes, or just 0.3%.

Georgia

In Georgia, Trump is polling just 0.4% ahead of Harris – down from 1.4% over Biden four years ago.

In 2020, Biden began leading Trump on Oct. 1. By Election Day, he was 1.2% ahead of Trump. The winning difference was about 11,000 votes, or just 0.2%.

Since 1980, this was only one of two times that the Republican presidential candidate lost in Georgia.

Nevada

While Harris is ahead of Trump in Nevada by 0.5%, it is 5% less than Biden’s lead at the same time. Trump never led in polling in the final three months.

This election season, Trump has led the polls numerous times since early August.

In 2020, Biden was polling 5.3% ahead of Trump on Election Day. Yet, he won by only 2.4%.

North Carolina

North Carolina is particularly interesting. It has been the focus of both campaigns over the last few weeks, and Democrats believe they can win the state for the first time since Barack Obama won it in 2008.

Trump outperformed the polls here both four and eight years ago, winning the state twice.

In 2020, Biden was polling 1.8% ahead of Trump going into Election Day and lost by 1.3%. The Democrat never trailed in the final months, and was 1.2% ahead at this same time.

Trump has led all four polls in the last week since his debate against Harris, and his consensus lead is a slim 0.3%.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Harris is polling 3% behind where Biden was polling at this point in 2020. She is leading Trump by 1.4%, while Biden was leading him by 4.8%.

On Election Day, Biden was nearly 5% ahead of Trump, and won by 1.2%.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, Trump has significantly narrowed Harris’ recent lead.

At this point in 2020, Biden was leading by 6.7%, but he eventually finished on Election Day with polling a whopping 8.4% ahead of Trump. He won by just 0.8%.

This time around, Harris is ahead only 1.6%, or within the margin of error. Since August, Trump has slowly been narrowing her lead over him.

Elyse Apel
Go to Source
Reposted with permission

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2026 GOP Candidate Josh Schoemann Challenges Evers’ Budget Approach

(The Center Square) – Josh Schoemann, the only Republican currently in the race for governor next year, is criticizing Gov. Tony Evers’ approach to the next state budget by comparing it to his plans in Washington County.

“In Washington County our budget cycle starts right now, and it’s not due until November. We will propose our budget goals to the County Board in the next couple of months. We will share ‘This is what we’re thinking.’ It gives them months of time to think those through, give us feedback, and [have] that kind of dialogue,” Schoemann explained in an interview on News Talk 1130 WISN.

Schoemann said that is far better than the approach Evers is taking again this year.

“That’s not how government is supposed to work,” Schoemann said. “It’s not the vision of the governor. It’s not the vision of any one person.”

Evers and the Republican legislative leaders who will write the budget have been involved in on-again, off-again budget talks this month. On Thursday, the governor’s office said those talks were off once again because of gridlock in the Senate.

“Ultimately, the Senate needs to decide whether they were elected to govern and get things done or not,” Evers spokesperson Britt Cudaback said in a post on X.

Schoemann’s criticism of Evers is nothing new. He has long been a critic of the governor and has turned that criticism up since launching his campaign for governor.

But the recent criticism was also aimed at other Republicans who may jump into the 20206 governor’s race later this year.

“Nobody else in this race on the Republican side, being rumored to this point, has the executive leadership of skills and history to be able to show ‘This is how I’ve done it before, and here’s how we’ll do it Madison,’” Schoemann said. “The results in Washington County speak for themselves.”

Northwoods Congressman Tom Tiffany is also rumored to be looking to get into the Republican race. Before he went to Congress, Tiffany was a Republican lawmaker in Madison.

Businessman and veteran Bill Berrien is also on the short list of likely GOP candidates for 2026.

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Wisconsin Budget Negotiations Reach Impasse Between Evers, Legislature

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin budget negotiations have reached an impasse with both sides pointing fingers at the other in Wednesday afternoon statements.

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said Republican Legislative leaders backed out of negotiations after he agreed to “an income tax cut targeting Wisconsin’s middle-class and working families and eliminating income taxes for certain retirees.” He said Republican leaders would not agree to “meaningful increased investments in child care, K-12 schools, and the University of Wisconsin System.”

Republican Assembly leaders said the two sides were "far apart. Senate leaders say Evers’ desires “extend beyond what taxpayers can afford.”

“The Joint Committee on Finance will continue using our long-established practices of crafting a state budget that contains meaningful tax relief and responsible spending levels with the goal of finishing on time,” said a statement from Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, and Assembly Finance Co-Chairman Mark Born, R-Beaver Dam.

Evers said that there were meetings between the sides every day this week before the impasse.

“I told Republicans I’d support their half of the deal and their top tax priorities – even though they’re very similar to bills I previously vetoed – because I believe that’s how compromise is supposed to work, and I was ready to make that concession in order to get important things done for Wisconsin’s kids,” Evers said.

Senate Republican leadership said that good faith negotiations have occurred since April on a budget compromise.

“Both sides of these negotiations worked to find compromise and do what is best for the state of Wisconsin,” said a statement from Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, R-Oostburg, and Senate Joint Finance Co-Chairman Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green.

In early May, the Joint Committee on Finance took 612 items out of Gov. Tony Evers’ budget proposal, including Medicaid expansion in the state, department creations and tax exemptions.

Born previously estimated that Evers’ budget proposal would lead to $3 billion in tax increases over the two-year span.

Wisconsin Policy Forum estimated that the proposal would spend down more than $4 billion of the state’s expected $4.3 billion surplus if it is enacted.

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